Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Abstract

Changes in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann-Kendall trend test. Sen's estimator values stood in agreement with Mann-Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

Environmental health situation in Nigeria: current status and future needs

“…The country is affected by four types of climates such as tropical monsoon, Sahel, tropical savanna, and Alpine climate. The temperatures can rise to 44 °C (111.2 °F) in some parts, especially at the coast, during dry seasons and ranges 16 °C–25 °C in highland areas with temperate conditions along the Cameroon border [ 18 , 19 ]. The rainfall ranges between 4000 mm (157.5 in) to 2000 mm (118.1 in) per year in Southern parts and totals 1100 mm (43.3 in) in central Nigeria.…”

Performance Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products over Nigeria

“…This statistic tests whether to accept that there is a monotonic trend (alternative hypothesis, Ha) or to reject the null hypothesis (Ho), which states that no trend is present in the time series data [29]. The MK statistic has been used extensively in hydro-meteorological studies [29][30][31] for analyzing monotonic changes in time series data. The MK statistic is stated as [30]:…”

“…The MK statistic has been used extensively in hydro-meteorological studies [29][30][31] for analyzing monotonic changes in time series data. The MK statistic is stated as [30]:…”

Trend Analysis of Observed Precipitation, Temperature and Streamflow for Hadejia – Nguru Wetlands Catchment, Nigeria

“…The altered precipitation trends have direct impacts on streamflow (Chow et al, 1988;Aich et al, 2014;Kocsis et al, 2020). Streamflows are also found to be very sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns (Ezemonye et al, 2016;Okafor and Ogbu, 2018;Umar et al, 2018). The construction of hydraulic structures, such as dams, barrages, and large weirs can also cause streamflow reduction (Umar and Ankidawa, 2016;Umar et al, 2018).…”