John C Martin Foundation.

SUMMARY. Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

SUMMARY. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

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Background People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for hepatitis C (HCV), hepatitis B (HBV) and HIV without accessible harm reduction programmes. Coverage of needle and syringe and opioid substitution therapy (OST) services in South Africa is below global recommendations and no hepatitis services exist for PWID. We assessed HCV, HBV and HIV prevalence and risk factors among PWID accessing harm reduction services in Cape Town, Durban and Pretoria to inform policy and programming. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey among PWID in these cities between August 2016 and October 2017. Participants were opportunistically sampled while accessing services. Study team members administered a questionnaire that assessed sociodemographic characteristics, drug use and sexual risk practices. We tested for HCV (antibody, viral load and genotype), HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and HIV. Bivariate and multivariate analyses assessed associations with HCV serostatus. Results Nine hundred and forty-three PWID were included in the per protocol analysis. The majority (87%, 819/943) were male, the overall median age was 29 and most lived on the street (66%, 626/943). At last injection, 77% (722/943) reported using a new needle and syringe and 17% (163/943) shared equipment. HIV prevalence was 21% (196/926), HBsAg positivity 5% (47/936), HCV seroprevalence 55% (513/937), HCV viraemic prevalence (proportion tested with detectable HCV) 43% (404/937) and HCV viraemic rate (proportion HCV antibody positive with detectable HCV) 79% (404/513). HCV genotype 1a (73%, 270/368) was the most prevalent. In multivariate analysis, HCV infection was positively associated with residing in Pretoria (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.27, 95% CI 1.21–1.34), living on the street (aOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.38–2.60), frequent injecting (aOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.15–2.16) and HIV infection (aOR 1.69, 95% CI 1.15–2.47), and negatively associated with black race (aOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.36–0.74) and sexual activity in the previous month (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42–0.88). Conclusions HCV and HIV are major health threats affecting PWID in these cities. Access to OST and needle and syringe services needs to be increased and integrated with HCV services. Social and structural factors affecting PWID who live on the street need to be addressed.

SUMMARY. The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

Previous studies in South African patients have shown that hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence is low (2.6%) and genotype 5 is the dominant genotype. This is the first sequence-based genotype study from this country on two different patient groups (haemophiliacs (H) and liver disease (LD) patients) over two time periods (2000-2002 and 2007). Genotype 5 was found to be the dominant genotype in the LD groups, but genotype 1 dominated in the H group. Genotype 2, and a higher prevalence of genotype 3a, was present in the H group when compared to previous South African studies. Genotypes 3 and 4 have been described here in the LD groups for the first time in South Africa, with subtypes 4c and 4g being identified. A separate cluster of genotype 5 sequences were found to have only one adenine at nucleotide position 107 of the 5'UTR, as previously reported. Subtyping in the less conserved NS5B region was used to further characterize the 2000-2002 isolates and validate 5'UTR typing. The study shows that by using reliable methods of genotyping, the prevalence and frequencies of HCV genotypes can be monitored in South Africa for better diagnosis and treatment of the disease.

Introduction and methods Hepatitis B is a vaccine preventable disease and is notifiable in South Africa. Hepatitis B vaccination was incorporated into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation in South Africa in 1995. We used a convenience sample from community-based febrile rash surveillance in 2013 to estimate hepatitis B sero-prevalence. Of samples serologically negative for acute measles infection, 450 samples spanning nine provinces of South Africa were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) and hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc). Results Two children (2/450; 0.4%) tested positive for HBsAg. Three hundred and three children (67.3%) had evidence of vaccine induced immunity. Vaccine induced immunity was present in 80.2% of 1–5 year olds, but only 60.3% of 10–14 year olds. Natural immunity, indicating exposure to circulating hepatitis B, was present in 13/450 (2.9%) children. Conclusion Chronic hepatitis B in South African has decreased in prevalence from highly endemic levels prior to vaccine introduction to approximately 0.4% in this sample, demonstrating impact of a successful vaccination programme 18 years after introduction. Decreased vaccine-induced immunity with increasing age may reflect waning antibody titres over time.