John C Martin Foundation.

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There is preliminary evidence that colchicine, an inhibitor of collagen synthesis, may be beneficial in the treatment of cirrhosis of the liver. To evaluate the use of colchicine (1 mg per day, five days per week) in the treatment of hepatic cirrhosis, we performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which 100 patients were followed for up to 14 years. Forty-five patients had alcoholic cirrhosis, 41 had posthepatitic cirrhosis, and the remaining 14 had cirrhosis with various other causes. Histologic studies were available for 92 percent of patients. Seventy-three patients were in Child-Turcotte class A, 26 were in class B, and one was in class C. Fifty-four patients received colchicine, and 46 received placebo. The overall survival in the colchicine group was markedly better than in the placebo group (median survival, 11 and 3.5 years, respectively; P less than 0.001). The cumulative 5-year survival rates were 75 percent in the colchicine group and 34 percent in the placebo group; the corresponding 10-year survival rates were 56 percent and 20 percent. Among the 30 patients treated with colchicine who underwent repeated liver biopsies, histologic improvement was seen in 9; the liver appeared normal in 2, and 7 had minimal portal fibrosis. No histologic improvement was observed in the 14 members of the placebo group who had two or more biopsies. Few side effects were observed in either group.

SUMMARY. Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Background and aim: The purpose of the present investigation is to provide an analysis of previous works on the epidemiology of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from six countries throughout Latin America, to forecast the future HCV prevalence trends in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Puerto Rico, and to outline deficiencies in available data, highlighting the need for further research. Methods: Data references were identified through indexed journals and non-indexed sources. Overall, 1080 articles were reviewed and 150 were selected based on their relevance to this work. When multiple data sources were available for a key assumption, a systematic process using multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) was used to select the most appropriate sources. When data were missing, analogues were used. Data from other countries with similar risk factors and/or population compositions were used as a proxy to help predict the future trends in prevalence. Results: The review indicates that the dominant genotype is type 1. HCV prevalence in the analysed countries ranges from 1 to 2.3%. The Latin American countries have been very proactive in screening their blood supplies, thus minimizing the risk of transmission through transfusion. This suggests that other risk factors are set to play a major role in continued new infections. The number of diagnosed and treated patients is low, thereby increasing the burden of complications such as liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. The HCV prevalence, according to our modelling is steady or increasing and the number of infected individuals will increase. Conclusions: The results herein reported should provide a foundation for informed planning efforts to tackle hepatitis.

SUMMARY. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.