Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable.
Global resource markets are still reeling from the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the two countries are major suppliers of energy, food and fertilizers. Supply disruption and the sudden imposition, in response to the crisis, of unprecedented economic sanctions, trade restrictions and policy interventions have caused prices of commodities to skyrocket. Before the conflict, demand for global resources already exceeded supply and drove up prices as economies rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic. This gave rise to a global cost-of-living crisis, characterized by increasing levels of energy and food poverty. This situation is likely to become much worse as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, and poses a threat to human security, particularly among low-income and vulnerable populations. Governments must invest now to build resilient societies and economies to meet these long-term challenges. Mitigating the most immediate harms to populations is a top priority for policymakers, but failure to keep long-term objectives in mind – climate change mitigation, in particular – can lead to bad decisions that further embed existing fragilities in economic and social systems.
Climate change is a key issue for the future of the militaries of the UK and the US, says Neil Morisetti, both in how they are run and what they are tasked to do Neil Morisetti rear admiral, UK government climate and energy security envoyDesk 6 G 20, Ministry of Defence Main Building, London SW1A 2HB, UKThere is a growing recognition that we face a number of new threats to global stability and national security. In particular, there are risks to secure, sustainable, and affordable supplies of key natural resources (food, water, and energy), essential for economic prosperity and wellbeing. The 2010 UK Strategic Defence and Security Review and the US Quadrennial Defence Review both highlighted the effects of climate change as one of these risks.It is unlikely that climate change will be a direct cause of conflict. However, the impact of the second and third order consequences-loss of land or livelihood-has the potential to increase the risks of global instability and conflict in those parts of the world already experiencing other stresses, such as food or water shortages, health issues, or demographic challenges. Countries in this part of the world (centred on the equatorial belt) have experienced conflict in the past, both intrastate and interstate, frequently as a result of a lack of capacity in their government to look after the needs of their citizens. Because of this, climate change is widely recognised as a threat multiplier. Not somebody else's problemAt a time when countries such as the United Kingdom, the wider European Union, and the United States face many other challenges, not least as a result of the global economic downturn, it is tempting to see this as somebody else's problem (especially when the direct impact of climate change in these countries is unlikely to be felt until much later in the 21st century). However, by virtue of the globalised world that we live in, events many miles away can impact on the interests and security of our nations. A recent example of this is the impact felt by European and US companies as a result of the floods in Thailand. Whether it be auto parts or computer chips, both are manufactured in Thailand for subsequent use in the assembly of cars or computers in third party countries; the floods disrupted supplies and production lines had to be slowed. At the same time the loss of rice crops has resulted in shortages and price increases of this staple food product.The problem is compounded in a "just enough, just in time" world where factory warehouses are on the high seas, on global trade routes passing through the parts of the world where climate change will have the greatest impact, and are therefore vulnerable to disruption. All nations are, to a greater or lesser extent, trading nations. In the case of the UK more than 90% of goods imported travel along these supply lines. Of particular concern for many countries is the risk to secure, sustainable, and affordable supplies of energy, key for economic growth and prosperity. This is not only an issue for Europe and Amer...
The IPCC's new leadership needs to promote reforms to make the panel more relevant to the actors that use the organization's information.
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