Climate change and resource security

Abstract

Climate change is a key issue for the future of the militaries of the UK and the US, says Neil Morisetti, both in how they are run and what they are tasked to do Neil Morisetti rear admiral, UK government climate and energy security envoyDesk 6 G 20, Ministry of Defence Main Building, London SW1A 2HB, UKThere is a growing recognition that we face a number of new threats to global stability and national security. In particular, there are risks to secure, sustainable, and affordable supplies of key natural resources (food, water, and energy), essential for economic prosperity and wellbeing. The 2010 UK Strategic Defence and Security Review and the US Quadrennial Defence Review both highlighted the effects of climate change as one of these risks.It is unlikely that climate change will be a direct cause of conflict. However, the impact of the second and third order consequences-loss of land or livelihood-has the potential to increase the risks of global instability and conflict in those parts of the world already experiencing other stresses, such as food or water shortages, health issues, or demographic challenges. Countries in this part of the world (centred on the equatorial belt) have experienced conflict in the past, both intrastate and interstate, frequently as a result of a lack of capacity in their government to look after the needs of their citizens. Because of this, climate change is widely recognised as a threat multiplier. Not somebody else's problemAt a time when countries such as the United Kingdom, the wider European Union, and the United States face many other challenges, not least as a result of the global economic downturn, it is tempting to see this as somebody else's problem (especially when the direct impact of climate change in these countries is unlikely to be felt until much later in the 21st century). However, by virtue of the globalised world that we live in, events many miles away can impact on the interests and security of our nations. A recent example of this is the impact felt by European and US companies as a result of the floods in Thailand. Whether it be auto parts or computer chips, both are manufactured in Thailand for subsequent use in the assembly of cars or computers in third party countries; the floods disrupted supplies and production lines had to be slowed. At the same time the loss of rice crops has resulted in shortages and price increases of this staple food product.The problem is compounded in a "just enough, just in time" world where factory warehouses are on the high seas, on global trade routes passing through the parts of the world where climate change will have the greatest impact, and are therefore vulnerable to disruption. All nations are, to a greater or lesser extent, trading nations. In the case of the UK more than 90% of goods imported travel along these supply lines. Of particular concern for many countries is the risk to secure, sustainable, and affordable supplies of energy, key for economic growth and prosperity. This is not only an issue for Europe and Amer...

Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world

“…Like Paul Ehrlich (the biologist who had earlier published The Population Bomb), the Club of Rome was ridiculed for several decades, since about 1980, but more recent analyses reaffirm that business-as-usual may well cause the collapse of civilization by about the middle of this century [118,119]. In turn, rising scarcity threatens to interact with conflict, the ancient response of humans and many other species to scarcity [120,121].…”

Climate change and health in Earth's future

“…Links between climate change and an increased risk of conflict are widely reported in the academic literature [ Cook , ; Hsiang et al ., ; Zhang et al ., ; Welzer , ; Hsiang et al ., ], and within defense communities [ Sullivan et al ., ; Department of Defense , ; Jarvis et al ., ; Morisetti , ]. Hsiang et al recently published a meta‐analysis of 60 studies on conflict [ Hsiang et al ., ].…”

Freeing Policy from the Proximate

“…Climate change is associated with conflict historically (Zhang et al, 2007(Zhang et al, , 2011, and increased resource conflict from climate change is predicted by the academy (Mazo, 2010;Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012;Bowles et al, 2014) and by the world's militaries (Sullivan et al, 2007;Morisetti, 2012). Climate change may also increase the risk of genocide.…”