Part I of this two-part paper provides an overview of the HAZUS-MH Flood Model and a discussion of its capabilities for characterizing riverine and coastal flooding hazard. Included is a discussion of the Flood Information Tool, which permits rapid analysis of a wide variety of stream discharge data and topographic mapping to determine flood-frequencies over entire floodplains. Part II reports on the damage and loss estimation capability of the Flood Model, which includes a library of more than 900 damage curves for use in estimating damage to various types of buildings and infrastructure. Based on estimated property damage, the model estimates shelter needs and direct and indirect economic losses arising from floods. Analyses for the benefits of flood warning, levees, structural elevation, and flood mapping restudies are examples of analyses that can be performed with the Flood Model.
The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the full cost of this event, it is quite possible that total losses, excluding indirect effects, could reach as much as $40 billion. This would make the Northridge earthquake less severe than the Kobe event, which occurred exactly one year after the Northridge earthquake, but adds a bit of realism that a Kobe-type disaster is possible in the U.S. This paper attempts to put into perspective the direct capital losses associated with the Northridge earthquake. In doing so, we introduce the concept of hidden and/or undocumented costs that could double current estimates. In addition, we present the notion that a final estimate of loss may be impossible to achieve, although costs do begin to level off two years after the earthquake. Finally, we attempt to reconcile apparent differences between loss totals for two databases tracking similar information.
At the time of the Northridge earthquake, a number of new technologies, including real-time availability of earthquake source data, improved loss estimation techniques, Geographic Information Systems and various satellite-based monitoring systems, were either available or under consideration as emergency management resources. The potential benefits from these technologies for earthquake hazard mitigation, response and recovery, however, were largely conceptual. One of the major lessons learned from the January 17, 1994 earthquake was that these technologies could confer significant advantages in understanding and managing a major disaster, and that their integration would contribute a significant additional increment of utility. In the two and half years since the Northridge earthquake, important strides have been taken toward the integration of relatively discrete technologies in a system which provides real-time estimates of regional damage, losses and population impacts. This paper will describe the development, operation and application of the first real-time loss estimation system to be utilized by an emergency services organization.
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