Real-Time Loss Estimation as an Emergency Response Decision Support System: The Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT)

Eguchi, Ronald T.; Goltz, James D.; Seligson, Hope A.; Flores, Paul J.; Blais, Neil C.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Bortugno, Edward

doi:10.1193/1.1585982

Cited by 73 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…Macroseismic intensity (Grünthal, 2011) is a useful tool for purposes such as loss estimation (e.g., Eguchi et al, 1997;Grünthal et al, 2006;Wyss, 2008), communication of earthquake effects to the public (e.g., Wald, Quitoriano, Heaton, et al, 1999), and SHAs in regions with abundant historical earthquake records and moderate seismicity but sparse seismometer coverage (e.g., Musson, 2000;Bindi et al, 2011). Because the evaluation of building vulnerability is part of both macroseismic investigation and risk assessment, it is a natural advantage for intensity as the basis of risk assessment, leading to the continual popularity of the use of intensity for this purpose.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating Intensity Prediction Equations for Italy by Observations

Mak¹,

Clements²,

Schorlemmer³

2015

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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The engineering seismology community has recently recognized the importance of validating the performance of predictive models for seismic hazard by independent observations, yielding a number of studies on the relative performance of ground-motion prediction equations. The validation of intensity prediction equations (IPEs) has attracted less attention. We fill this gap by validating eight Italian IPEs plus one global IPE using five sets of Italian macroseismic intensity data, of which three are prospective and two retrospective to the models. We implemented multiple scoring methods to validate the models and found that the simple score of mean absolute error is sufficient to measure the general model performance. Good models consistently perform well under multiple methods and datasets, showing robustness. Models with physical functional forms are found to perform better. The global IPE performed well for Italian data, implying insignificant regional differences for IPEs. This result encourages grouping intensity data collected from multiple geographic regions, both from the Internet and traditional surveys, into a larger dataset for the use of future model development and validation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating Intensity Prediction Equations for Italy by Observations

Mak¹,

Clements²,

Schorlemmer³

2015

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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“…. And many methodologies (as EGUCHI et al, 1997;FEMA, 2003) have been developed for estimating the economic impact of earthquakes. However, despite advances in methodologies and developments in seismic code, limited resources and increasing costs often restrict their application in extensive rural areas, and results in greater uncertainty of expected losses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Approach to Earthquake Risk in Mainland China

Chen

Jing

2005

Pure appl. geophys.

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There are limitations in conventional earthquake loss procedures if attempts are made to apply these to assess the social and economic impacts of recent disastrous earthquakes. This paper addresses the need to develop an applicable model for estimating the significant increases of earthquake loss in mainland China. The casualties of earthquakes were studied first. The casualties of earthquakes are strongly related to earthquake strength, occurrence time (day or night) and the distribution of population in the affected area. Using data on earthquake casualties in mainland China from 1980 to 2000, we suggest a relationship between average losses of life and the magnitude of earthquakes. Combined with information on population density and earthquake occurrence times, we use these data to give a further relationship between the loss of life and factors like population density, intensity and occurrence time of the earthquake. Earthquakes that occurred from 2001 to 2003 were tested for the given relationships. This paper also explores the possibility of using a macroeconomic indicator, here GDP (Gross Domestic Product), to roughly estimate earthquake exposure in situations where no detailed insurance or similar inventories exist, thus bypassing some problems of the conventional method.

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“…The earthquake event timetable is a determining factor for the estimation of the victims, as it affects the number of people present inside the buildings at the time of collapse [16].…”

Section: Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preventive planning model for rescue priority management in seismic emergency

Cardarilli¹,

Lombardi²,

Guarascio³

2018

Int. J. SAFE

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This study stems from the detection analysis of damaged buildings in Nocera Umbra (Central Italy), which has been affected by the earthquake sequence during 1997-1998, causing serious damages to material goods and human casualties. This natural disaster highlighted the need to achieve a strategic planning during the emergency phase based not only on effective actions but also on the efficient management of rescue and relief operations.The application of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) has led to the seismic risk assessment for estimating the potential level of the expected damage, on heritage buildings and human lives.Data and information have been gathered during the surveys carried out after the major seismic event. A deep analysis has highlighted the existence of a correlation ratio between the critical structural features and the propensity of buildings to collapse. Considering either the exposed population, this information represents the crucial element for a relief management plan.All risk indicators associated to each damage scenario have allowed to assign a scale of priorities at every relief operations for an effective risk mitigation based on damage level and expected casualties.The ex-post emergency organization would be able to make more efficient both allocation and management of resources, equipment and technical teams during rescue activities. This is strongly connected to the ex-ante priority planning of the operations related to magnitude and distribution of expected collapses and casualties thank to the simulation performed to the potential risk scenarios.

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Real-Time Loss Estimation as an Emergency Response Decision Support System: The Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT)

Cited by 73 publications

References 0 publications

Validating Intensity Prediction Equations for Italy by Observations

Validating Intensity Prediction Equations for Italy by Observations

A Simplified Approach to Earthquake Risk in Mainland China

Preventive planning model for rescue priority management in seismic emergency

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