A Simplified Approach to Earthquake Risk in Mainland China

Abstract

There are limitations in conventional earthquake loss procedures if attempts are made to apply these to assess the social and economic impacts of recent disastrous earthquakes. This paper addresses the need to develop an applicable model for estimating the significant increases of earthquake loss in mainland China. The casualties of earthquakes were studied first. The casualties of earthquakes are strongly related to earthquake strength, occurrence time (day or night) and the distribution of population in the affected area. Using data on earthquake casualties in mainland China from 1980 to 2000, we suggest a relationship between average losses of life and the magnitude of earthquakes. Combined with information on population density and earthquake occurrence times, we use these data to give a further relationship between the loss of life and factors like population density, intensity and occurrence time of the earthquake. Earthquakes that occurred from 2001 to 2003 were tested for the given relationships. This paper also explores the possibility of using a macroeconomic indicator, here GDP (Gross Domestic Product), to roughly estimate earthquake exposure in situations where no detailed insurance or similar inventories exist, thus bypassing some problems of the conventional method.

An Earthquake Fatalities Assessment Method Based on Feature Importance with Deep Learning and Random Forest Models

“…Linear models are the most constantly used methods for assessing feature correlation [3]. In reference [4], the research has given the relationship between human losses and factors such as population density and the intensity and magnitude of the earthquakes based on the linear models. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties and fuzziness in the data of the factors [5], integrated ensemble models were proposed and applied to the feature importance assessment models [6][7][8][9] for the purpose of improving accuracy and generalization ability of the traditional linear models [10].…”

“…The regularity of people's working and resting time makes the differences of earthquake occurrence time have a great impact on the fatalities [4,13]. Time was divided into two parts of this study: daytime (7:00-21:00) and sleeping time (21:00-next7:00).…”

“…In general, the higher the intensity, the greater the casualties [4]. This study used the epicenter intensity listed in the Earthquake Disasters and Losses Assessment Report in Chinese Mainland.…”

“…Population density has a great impact on the number of earthquake deaths [4]. There are obvious differences between densely populated and more sparsely populated areas.…”

Effects of seismic intensity and socioeconomic status on injury and displacement after the 2007 Peru earthquake

“…There is less agreement on the role that sociodemographic factors such as popula tion density, economic status, and level of education play in earthquake vulnerability. Higher population density is generally considered to place a community at greater risk (Samardjieva and Badal, 2002;Badal, VazquezPrada and Gonzalez, 2005;Chen, Mi and Huang 2005); however, in a study of mortality in major earthquakes world wide since 1980since , Gutierrez et al (2005 found that risk was greatest in lesspopulated rural areas. Studying the 1988 earthquake in Armenia, Armenian, Melkonian and Hovanesian (1998) found a statistically significant relationship between a low level of education and mortality.…”