Direct Economic Losses in the Northridge Earthquake: A Three-Year Post-Event Perspective

Abstract

The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the full cost of this event, it is quite possible that total losses, excluding indirect effects, could reach as much as $40 billion. This would make the Northridge earthquake less severe than the Kobe event, which occurred exactly one year after the Northridge earthquake, but adds a bit of realism that a Kobe-type disaster is possible in the U.S. This paper attempts to put into perspective the direct capital losses associated with the Northridge earthquake. In doing so, we introduce the concept of hidden and/or undocumented costs that could double current estimates. In addition, we present the notion that a final estimate of loss may be impossible to achieve, although costs do begin to level off two years after the earthquake. Finally, we attempt to reconcile apparent differences between loss totals for two databases tracking similar information.

Disaster vulnerability of businesses in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake

“…Data on insurance payouts are available only for businesses that were insured and for losses above deductibles. For a discussion on the difficulties of establishing a complete picture of loss in a disaster, see Eguchi et al (1998).…”

Shallow seismic imaging of folds above the Puente Hills blind‐thrust fault, Los Angeles, California

“…This area is underlain by several blind fault systems capable of generating M w 6.5 to M w 7.6 earthquakes [ Dolan et al , 1995; Shaw and Shearer , 1999]. Most recently, a blind thrust fault ruptured in the M w 6.7 Northridge earthquake, causing over $40 billion in damages and 33 deaths [ Scientists of USGS and SCEC , 1994; Eguchi et al , 1988].…”

Case Studies of Damage to Tall Steel Moment-Frame Buildings in Southern California during Large San Andreas Earthquakes

“…Fortunately, in modern history the urban areas of southern California have thus far been spared from the strongest shaking generated by large strikeslip earthquakes. The magnitude 6.7 earthquake of 17 January 1994, on the Northridge blind-thrust fault, however, caused 57 deaths and economic losses in excess of $40 billion (Eguchi et al, 1998;Petak and Elahi, 2000). This earthquake exposed the vulnerability of steel moment-resisting frame buildings to fracture (SAC, 1995a, b, c).…”