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Most phosphorus (P) modeling studies of water quality have focused on surface runoff loses. However, a growing number of experimental studies have shown that P losses can occur in drainage water from artificially drained fields. In this review, we assess the applicability of nine models to predict this type of P loss. A model of P movement in artificially drained systems will likely need to account for the partitioning of water and P into runoff, macropore flow, and matrix flow. Within the soil profile, sorption and desorption of dissolved P and filtering of particulate P will be important. Eight models are reviewed (ADAPT, APEX, DRAINMOD, HSPF, HYDRUS, ICECREAMDB, PLEASE, and SWAT) along with P Indexes. Few of the models are designed to address P loss in drainage waters. Although the SWAT model has been used extensively for modeling P loss in runoff and includes tile drain flow, P losses are not simulated in tile drain flow. ADAPT, HSPF, and most P Indexes do not simulate flow to tiles or drains. DRAINMOD simulates drains but does not simulate P. The ICECREAMDB model from Sweden is an exception in that it is designed specifically for P losses in drainage water. This model seems to be a promising, parsimonious approach in simulating critical processes, but it needs to be tested. Field experiments using a nested, paired research design are needed to improve P models for artificially drained fields. Regardless of the model used, it is imperative that uncertainty in model predictions be assessed.

Abstract:This study was conducted under the USDA-Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south-central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as 'impaired waters' under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA-CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed-scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub-watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty-five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R 2 , from 0Ð50 to 0Ð89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0Ð47 to 0Ð73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0Ð25 to 0Ð45 m 3 s 1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R 2 from 0Ð60 to 0Ð70, E from 0Ð63 to 0Ð68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R 2 from 0Ð60 to 0Ð77, E from 2Ð38 to 0Ð32). The root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0Ð08 to 0Ð25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results.

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Accurate descriptions of P leaching are important because excess P applied to soils can enter surface water via leaching and subsurface transport, thereby negatively impacting water quality. The objectives of this study were to monitor P leaching in soils with a long-term history of waste application, relate soil solution P concentrations to soil P status, and quantify P leaching losses. Soil solution was monitored for 20 mo with samplers installed at 45-, 90-, and 135-cm depths in two pits (1 X 3 X L5 m) in Autryville (loamy, siliceous, thermic Arenic Paleudults) and Blanton (loamy, siliceous, semiactive, thermic Grossarenic Paleudults) soils located in a grazed pasture in Sampson County, NC, which had received swine waste for >20 yr. Maximum soil solution P concentrations at 45 cm exceeded 18 mg L' in both soils. Soil solution P concentrations at 90 cm in the Blanton soil were similar to that at 45 cm indicating low P sorption. Soil solution P concentrations at 90 cm in the Autryville soil averaged 0.05 mg L-' compared to 10 mg L' at 45 cm. A split-line model related soil solution P concentration to the degree of phosphorus saturation (DPS), identifying a change point at 45% DPS. Phosphorus movement past 45 cm equaled or exceeded surplus P additions for both soils. Longterm waste applications resulted in DPS > 90%, high soil solution P concentrations, and substantial vertical P movement. Phosphorus leaching should be considered when assessing long-term risk of P loss from waste-amended soils.

Critical source area identification through phosphorus (P) site assessment is a fundamental part of modern nutrient management planning in the United States, yet there has been only sparse testing of the many versions of the P Index that now exist. Each P site assessment tool was developed to be applicable across a range of field conditions found in a given geographic area, making evaluation extremely difficult. In general, evaluation with in-field monitoring data has been limited, focusing primarily on corroborating manure and fertilizer "source" factors. Thus, a multiregional effort (Chesapeake Bay, Heartland, and Southern States) was undertaken to evaluate P Indices using a combination of limited field data, as well as output from simulation models (i.e., Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender, Annual P Loss Estimator, Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT], and Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool [TBET]) to compare against P Index ratings. These comparisons show promise for advancing the weighting and formulation of qualitative P Index components but require careful vetting of the simulation models. Differences among regional conclusions highlight model strengths and weaknesses. For example, the Southern States region found that, although models could simulate the effects of nutrient management on P runoff, they often more accurately predicted hydrology than total P loads. Furthermore, SWAT and TBET overpredicted particulate P and underpredicted dissolved P, resulting in correct total P predictions but for the wrong reasons. Experience in the United States supports expanded regional approaches to P site assessment, assuming closely coordinated efforts that engage science, policy, and implementation communities, but limited scientific validity exists for uniform national P site assessment tools at the present time.

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