We have been conducting research to determine the impact of the structure of the regional labour market on regional development. We have studied the entities of the Central Federal District in general and the Bryansk region in particular. We have limited our labour market study to the research and development sector. We have used statistical analysis to test our hypothesis that there is no statistically significant correlation between regional enterprise expenditure and the movement of regional gross product. We have found that the structure of the regional labour market in the field of research and development is characterized by a steady downward trend of personnel engaged in research and development. The Pearson coefficient obtained for the analysis of the correlation between research and development expenditure and the gross regional product of companies in the Central Federal District does not suggest a significant correlation between the indicators. In general, we do not believe that it is possible to assert a stable trend in innovative development of the regions of the Central Federal District. What can be said with confidence is the inconsistency of the statistical information that served as the basis for the study, which in turn led to rather contradictory analyzes.
We investigate the relationship between the value of the gross regional product of the Bryansk region and the values of export-import operations carried out by enterprises in the same region. We carried out a correlation analysis (according to the methods of Pearson, Kendall, and Spearman) and established the absence of a statistically significant correlation between the named values. We also performed the Granger causality test, the results of which are similar to those of the correlation analysis; we also failed to reject null hypotheses when performing the Granger causality test, indicating the absence of a statistically significant effect of the values of exports and imports of the Bryansk region on the value of the gross regional product. We have built (using the ordinary least squares method) linear regression models of the impact of exports and imports on the dynamics of the gross regional product. Both models show that there is a negative relationship between the named values: between exports and the gross regional product, it is statistically insignificant, and between imports and the gross regional product it is statistically significant. Our results do not confirm the widespread opinion on the advantage of the geographical location of the Bryansk region for the development of the region. We suppose our results can be explained using the Guex-Crevoisier matrix, according to which the Bryansk region belongs to the regions of the third and fourth types, and for its development it is advisable to form an economy focused on the needs of the population of the region.
We have studied the influence of the three largest sectors of the economy of the Bryansk region on the dynamics of the gross regional product of the named region. These are agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail trade. We found that there is a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between the gross regional product and the indicated branches of the regional economy. We proposed a linear regression model for the dependent variable (i.e., gross regional product) and regression factors (the output of the three branches of the economy of the Bryansk region). The resulting value of the regression coefficient indicates the quality of the model; however, we subjected our model to a power transformation using the Box-Cox test, obtaining a higher regression coefficient value, as well as an adjusted regression coefficient. Despite this, we consider it necessary to continue the study of the factors that determine the dynamics of the gross regional product and regional development as a whole.
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