Analysis of the impact of foreign trade operations on the gross regional product of the Bryansk region

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between the value of the gross regional product of the Bryansk region and the values of export-import operations carried out by enterprises in the same region. We carried out a correlation analysis (according to the methods of Pearson, Kendall, and Spearman) and established the absence of a statistically significant correlation between the named values. We also performed the Granger causality test, the results of which are similar to those of the correlation analysis; we also failed to reject null hypotheses when performing the Granger causality test, indicating the absence of a statistically significant effect of the values of exports and imports of the Bryansk region on the value of the gross regional product. We have built (using the ordinary least squares method) linear regression models of the impact of exports and imports on the dynamics of the gross regional product. Both models show that there is a negative relationship between the named values: between exports and the gross regional product, it is statistically insignificant, and between imports and the gross regional product it is statistically significant. Our results do not confirm the widespread opinion on the advantage of the geographical location of the Bryansk region for the development of the region. We suppose our results can be explained using the Guex-Crevoisier matrix, according to which the Bryansk region belongs to the regions of the third and fourth types, and for its development it is advisable to form an economy focused on the needs of the population of the region.