Regression model of the gross regional product of the Bryansk region and the output of the branches of the regional economy

Abstract

We have studied the influence of the three largest sectors of the economy of the Bryansk region on the dynamics of the gross regional product of the named region. These are agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail trade. We found that there is a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between the gross regional product and the indicated branches of the regional economy. We proposed a linear regression model for the dependent variable (i.e., gross regional product) and regression factors (the output of the three branches of the economy of the Bryansk region). The resulting value of the regression coefficient indicates the quality of the model; however, we subjected our model to a power transformation using the Box-Cox test, obtaining a higher regression coefficient value, as well as an adjusted regression coefficient. Despite this, we consider it necessary to continue the study of the factors that determine the dynamics of the gross regional product and regional development as a whole.