This paper aims to discuss the Seroja Tropical Cyclone and its impact on extreme weather. Seroja tropical cyclones occur from April 4 to 5th 2021, in the East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) region. Based on data from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the initial position of the Seroja tropical cyclone was in the Savu Sea, southwest of Timor Island. Since April 1, 2021, the NTT region has become the center of low pressure that triggers the formation of this cyclone. When a tropical storm occurs, the intensity of rainfall which initially reaches less than 60 mm/day, increases rapidly to more than 100 mm/day on April 4 to 5, 2021. This is the impact of the low-pressure center that triggers the formation of tropical cyclones in the region.
Celeng sub-watershed is a catchment area located in the Oyo watershed. This catchment has circular shape which is situated in the alluvial plain. In the 2018, there was a huge flood occurred in the area that was triggered by Savana Cyclone. The cyclone itself contributed in extreme precipitation, resulted in high discharge in a very short time, and spilled over the riverbank. The research aims (1) to analyze the discharge capacity in the Celeng sub-watershed, (2) to determine the design discharge of Celeng sub-watershed for 2, 5, 10, and 25 years return period, and (3) to evaluate whether the design discharge excess the Celeng river capacity or not. The research uses quantitative analysis through rational method and slope area method. The design discharge measured by rational method and applied to evaluate the river capacity along with rational method. The result shows that the area does not experience flood in all return period.
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