In three clinical centres, we compared a new method for measuring cardiac output with conventional thermodilution. The new method computes beat-to-beat cardiac output from radial artery pressure by simulating a three-element model of aortic input impedance, and includes non-linear aortic mechanical properties and a self-adapting systemic vascular resistance. We compared cardiac output by continuous model simulation (MF) with thermodilution cardiac output (TD) in 54 patients (18 female, 36 male) undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. We made three or four conventional thermodilution estimates spread equally over the ventilatory cycle. In 490 series of measurements, thermodilution cardiac output ranged from 2.1 to 9.3, mean 5.0 litre min(-1). MF differed +0.32 (1.0) litre min(-1) on average with limits of agreement of -1.68 and +2.32 litre min(-1). Differences decreased when the first series of measurements in a patient was used to calibrate the model. In 436 remaining series, the mean difference became -0.13 (0.47) litre min(-1) with limits of agreement of -1.05 and +0.79 litre min(-1). When consecutive measurements were made, the change was greater than 0.5 litre min(-1), on 204 occasions. The direction of change was the same with both methods in 199. The difference between the methods remained near zero during surgery suggesting that a single calibration per patient was adequate. Aortic model simulation with radial artery pressure as input reliably monitors changes in cardiac output in cardiac surgery patients. Before calibration, the model cannot replace thermodilution, but after calibration the model method can quantitatively replace further thermodilution estimates.

Bispectral analysis (BIS) of the electroencephalogram (EEG) has been shown in retrospective studies to predict whether patients will move in response to skin incision. This prospective multicenter study was designed to evaluate the real-time utility of BIS in predicting movement response to skin incision using a variety of general anesthetic techniques. Three hundred patients from seven study sites received an anesthetic regimen expected to give an approximately 50% movement response at skin incision. EEG was continuously recorded via an Aspect B-500 monitor and BIS was calculated in real time from bilateral frontocentral channels displayed on the monitor. Half of the patients were randomized to a treatment group in which anesthetic drug doses were increased to produce a lower BIS. In the control group, BIS was recorded, but no action taken on the data displayed. A determination of movement in response to skin incision was made in the 2 min succeeding incision. Retrospective pharmacodynamic modeling was performed using STANPUMP to estimate effect-site concentrations of intravenously administered anesthetics. BIS values were significantly higher in the control group (66 +/- 19) versus the BIS-guided group, in which additional anesthesia was administered to produce a lower BIS (51 +/- 19). The movement response rate was significantly higher in the control group at 43% compared with 13% in the BIS-guided group, but response rates were low at sites which used larger doses of opioids. Logistic regression analysis showed that BIS, estimated opioid effect-site concentrations, and heart rate (in that order) were the best predictors of movement at skin incision. This study demonstrates that dosing anesthetic drugs to lower BIS values achieves a lower probability of movement in response to surgical stimulation. BIS is a significant predictor of patient response to incision, but the utility of the BIS depends on the anesthetic technique being used. When drugs such as propofol or isoflurane are used as the primary anesthetic, changes in BIS correlate with the probability of response to skin incision. When opioid analgesics are used, the correlation to patient movement becomes much less significant, so that patients with apparently "light" EEG profiles may not move or otherwise respond to incision. Therefore, the adjunctive use of opioid analgesics confounds the use of BIS as a measure of anesthetic adequacy when movement response to skin incision is used as the primary end point.

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We evaluated two prototype instruments that measure pulsatile blood pressure continuously and noninvasively and compared the mean arterial pressure obtained from these devices with that obtained invasively in 17 male surgical patients. Each prototype consisted of an infrared photoplethysmograph mounted inside a finger cuff. The cuff was connected to a pressure control valve, which rapidly changed the cuff pressure so as to maintain a null pressure difference across the finger arterial wall. The resultant cuff pressure rapidly tracked the pulsatile intraarterial pressure. The prototypes reproduced absolute pressure, as well as pressure changes, accurately and linearly over a wide range of mean arterial pressures (from 2 to 164 mm Hg), with an average offset error of 0.8 mm Hg (SD +/- 3.8; range, -4.6 to 7.9), a mean scatter error of 5.3 mm Hg (range, 3.6 to 8.6), a mean regression slope of 0.97 (range, 0.79 to 1.22) and a mean correlation coefficient of the regression of 0.96 (range, 0.89 to 0.98). Both prototypes worked satisfactorily on all 17 patients, but not all the time on all patients. In 7 patients, probable arterial spasm prevented measurement of finger blood pressure 12.1% of the time, or 5.4% of the time for all patients. Ninety-six percent of the lost samples occurred with prototype 2, suggesting an instrument-related cause, rather than one related to the principle itself. The prototypes were simple to use and were almost free from artifact. Continuous monitoring for up to 7 hours on a single finger caused no harm to the finger.

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Bispectral Index, AAI, and predicted propofol effect-site concentration revealed information on the level of sedation and loss of consciousness but did not predict response to noxious stimulus.

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There is a need for a measure of prediction accuracy that generalizes non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area to polytomous ordinal patient state. We describe such a measure, prediction probability PK derived from Kim's measure of association. We show that the value of PK equals the value of non-parametric ROC area for dichotomous patient state and is a meaningful generalization of non-parametric ROC area for polytomous state.