In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) , the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes non included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalogue composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6-8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one degree less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP;Ulomov, 1999). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan).2

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Waveform correlation is garnering attention as a method for detecting, locating, and characterizing similar seismic events. To explore the opportunities for using waveform correlation in broad regional monitoring, we applied the technique to a large region of central Asia over a three-year period, monitoring for events at regional distances using three high-quality stations. We discuss methods for choosing quality templates and introduce a method for choosing correlation detection thresholds, tailored for each template, for a desired false alarm rate. Our SeisCorr software found more than 10,000 detections during the three-year period using almost 2000 templates. We discuss and evaluate three methods of confirming detections: bulletin confirmation, high correlation with a template, and multistation validation. At each station, 65%-75% of our detections could be confirmed, most by multistation validation. We confirmed over 6500 unique detections. For monitoring applications, it is of interest that a significant portion of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization's Late Event Bulletin (LEB) catalog events was detected and that adding our confirmed detections for the LEB catalog would more than double the catalog size. Waveform correlation also allows for relative magnitude calculation, and we explore the magnitudes of detected events. The results of our study suggest that doing broad regional monitoring using historical and real-time-generated templates is feasible and will increase detection capabilities.

<p>Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999), aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s². In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia), the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth &lt; 50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64), intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8), 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.</p>

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