Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

Ullah, Shahid; Bindi, Dino; Pilz, Marco; Danciu, Laurentiu; Weatherill, Graeme; Zuccolo, Elisa; Ischuk, Anatoly; Mikhailova, N.; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek; Parolai, Stefano

doi:10.4401/ag-6687

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…In particular, large earthquakes have struck the northern Tien Shan between the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries (M = 7.3, 1887 Verniy earthquake; M = 8.2, 1889 Chilik earthquake; M = 8.2, 1911 Kemin earthquake; M = 6.9, 1938 Chu-Kemin earthquake). The occurrence of such large events makes Central Asia one of the areas of the world most prone to earthquake hazard, as confirmed by several studies performed at different spatial scales [e.g., Ulomov and the GSHAP Region 7 Working Group 1999, Abdrakhmatov et al 2003, Erdik et al 2005, Bindi et al 2012, Ullah et al 2015. For example, all former capitals of Central Asia were destructed by earthquakes, such as Almaty (Kazakhstan), destroyed by the 1887, M 7.3 Verniy (former name of Almaty) earthquake and Ashgabat (Turkmenistan), destroyed by the 1948, M 7.3 Ashgabat earthquake, that probably led to more than 100,000 fatalities (http://earthquake.usgs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Building monitoring in Bishkek and Dushanbe by the use of ambient vibration analysis

Petrović

Bindi

Pilz

et al. 2015

Annals of Geophysics

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<p>Within the framework of the EMCA - Earthquake Model Central Asia - project, the cities of Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan) were selected for building monitoring using measurements of seismic noise to obtain the dynamical properties of the buildings. Eight buildings of different construction types, date of construction and building height, both, Soviet-era and recently constructed buildings, were instrumented for a period of a few hours. In this study, an overview of the experiment is given, including a short description of each monitored building’s structure and the performed installation. Preliminary results for a representative Soviet-era residential building in Dushanbe are presented. Modal analysis is performed using the Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) method to estimate the natural frequencies and the mode shapes. The wave propagation velocities in the two directions along the building axes are determined by an interferometric approach. Although the experimental set-up was not the optimal, valuable information about the dynamical characteristics of the buildings were still obtained.</p>

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Building monitoring in Bishkek and Dushanbe by the use of ambient vibration analysis

Petrović

Bindi

Pilz

et al. 2015

Annals of Geophysics

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“…In the case at hand, a moving time window of 20 days was adopted. More information on the Central Asia catalog processing can be found in Ullah et al [2015], this issue).…”

Section: Earthquake Catalog Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to carry out the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, two superzones (defined on the basis of seismo-tectonic and geological data) have been selected from the seismic zonation model developed within EMCA [Ullah et al 2015]. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the events located within these superzones after their selection from the de-clustered Central Asia catalog.…”

Section: Earthquake Catalog Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The completeness of the selected catalog was assessed by the Stepp method [Stepp 1973], which involved dividing the catalog into bins of 0.5 magnitude width, starting from magnitude 4.0 [Ullah et al 2015]. The analyses are carried out considering time intervals of 5 years, and used the Hazard Modelers' Toolkit of OpenQuake.…”

Section: Earthquake Catalog Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, it is worth noting that the catalog is dominated by earthquakes with reverse faulting mechanisms (as indicated by the global CMT catalog; Ullah et al [2015]), while a smaller number of events appear to display strike slip and normal faulting mechanisms. In particular, in the superzone 7 (Figure 2), 90% of the events show a reverse faulting mechanism and only 10% are strike slip.…”

Section: Earthquake Catalog Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

Ullah

Bindi

Pilz

et al. 2015

Annals of Geophysics

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<p>It is well known that variability in the surface geology potentially leads to the modification of earthquake-induced ground motion over short distances. Although this effect is of major importance when seismic hazard is assessed at the urban level, it is very often not appropriately accounted for. In this paper, we present a first attempt at taking into account the influence of the shallow geological structure on the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, using a proxy (Vs30) that has been estimated from in situ seismic noise array analyses, and considering response spectral ratios calculated by analyzing a series of earthquake recordings of a temporary seismic network. To highlight the spatial variability of the observed ground motion, the obtained results are compared with those estimated assuming a homogeneous Vs30 value over the whole urban area. The seismic hazard is evaluated in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at different periods (frequencies). The presented results consider the values obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest SA estimated considering a rock site classification of the area (0.43 g) is observed for a period of 0.1 s (10 Hz), while the maximum PGA reaches 0.21 g. When site effects are included through the Vs30 proxy in the seismic hazard calculation, the largest SA, 0.67 g, is obtained for a period of 0.3 s (about 3.3 Hz). In terms of PGA, in this case the largest estimated value reaches 0.31 g in the northern part of the town. When the variability of ground motion is accounted for through response spectrum ratios, the largest SA reaches a value as high as 1.39 g at a period of 0.5 s. In general, considering site effects in the seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek leads to an increase of seismic hazard in the north of the city, which is thus identified as the most hazardous part within the study area and which is more far away from the faults.</p>

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Kinematics and dynamics of the Pamir, Central Asia: Quantifying surface deformation and force balance in an intracontinental subduction zone

2017

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Kinematic and dynamic models quantify deformation and force balance in the Pamir, a region undergoing the rare and poorly understood process of intracontinental subduction. We constrain a detailed kinematic model with 506 recent GPS velocities and Quaternary fault slip rates and show that the Pamir is organized like the Himalaya and Tibet, with regions of (1) localized strain rate ≥100e‐9/year along the Pamir Frontal Thrust System (the subduction interface), similar to the Himalaya, and (2) distributed north‐south compression and east‐west extension, similar to Tibet. Through standard thin viscous sheet methods we demonstrate that the lithospheric force balance in the Pamir is a combination of stresses caused by gravitational potential energy and India‐Eurasia convergence accommodated at a subduction interface, in this case the Pamir Frontal Thrust System. We find that strain rate and deviatoric stress patterns near the Pamir Frontal Thrust System are characteristic of a mature subduction zone, despite its initiation in continental lithosphere. Although the Pamir and Tibet are kinematically and dynamically similar, the Pamir is stiffer overall than Tibet, perhaps due to the presence of the highly arcuate, geometrically stiffened continental slab at depth.

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

Cited by 22 publications

References 31 publications

Building monitoring in Bishkek and Dushanbe by the use of ambient vibration analysis

Building monitoring in Bishkek and Dushanbe by the use of ambient vibration analysis

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

Kinematics and dynamics of the Pamir, Central Asia: Quantifying surface deformation and force balance in an intracontinental subduction zone

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