The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region‐specific management strategies.
Non-technical summaryThe El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we found businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority.
A growing literature has focused on understanding the effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic on rural livelihoods and the agricultural sectors in Africa (Ainsworth, Fransen, and Over; Barnett and Whiteside; Gillespie and Kadiyala; Mather et al.). In some parts of southern Africa, HIV prevalence rates are as high as 30% among individuals between fifteen and forty-five years. Several nationwide household panel surveys from relatively hard-hit countries (Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia) indicate that, over a three-year survey interval, roughly 6 to 10% of rural households suffer one or more disease-related deaths of a prime-aged individual (Yamano and Jayne; Beegle; Chapoto and Jayne, forthcoming), and there is overwhelming evidence that most of the mortality in these age ranges is related to AIDS (Ngom and Clark).However, efforts to accurately estimate the economic impacts of AIDS-related mortality are fraught with difficulties. To date, almost all quantitative micro-level studies have examined the effects of mortality at the household level, even though it is likely that mortality shocks are transmitted across households. In this situation, a relatively small percentage of households incur a shock, but
Currently, the negative effects of unified and intensive agriculture are of growing concern. To mitigate them, the possibilities of using local but nowadays underused crop for food production should be more thoroughly investigated and promoted. The soybean is the major crop cultivated for vegetable oil production in Zambia, while the oil production from local oil-bearing plants is neglected. The chemical composition of oils and cakes of a three traditional oil plant used by descendants of the Lozi people for cooking were investigated. Parinari curatellifolia and Schinziophyton rautanenii oils were chiefly composed of α-eleostearic (28.58–55.96%), linoleic (9.78–40.18%), and oleic acid (15.26–24.07%), whereas Ochna serrulata contained mainly palmitic (35.62–37.31%), oleic (37.31–46.80%), and linoleic acid (10.61–18.66%); the oil yield was high (39–71%). S. rautanenii and O. serrulata oils were rich in γ-tocopherol (3236.18 μg/g, 361.11 μg/g, respectively). The O. serrulata oil also had a very distinctive aroma predominantly composed of p-cymene (52.26%), m-xylene (9.63%), γ-terpinene (9.07%), o-xylene (7.97), and limonene (7.23%). The cakes remaining after oil extraction are a good source of essential minerals, being rich in N, P, S, K, Ca, and Mg. These plants have the potential to be introduced for use in the food, technical, or pharmaceutical industries.
A good early warning system is one that provides timely planning information to a diverse set of stakeholders. While policy makers need very concise messages for quick decisions, aid and development agencies need very specific and detailed information which can help them in programming at grass-roots level. This paper reviews Zambia's crop monitoring and early warning systems and suggests practical ways to improve its efficiency and effectiveness, taking advantage of existing and potential synergistic and institutional opportunities.
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