Social cash transfers (SCTs) are considered a priority in least-developed countries, where the gap between the need for basic social protection and existing provisions is greatest. This study represents one of the first comprehensive treatments of the impact of social cash transfers in low-income sub-Saharan Africa, and the first for Zambia's oldest SCT scheme. The results, based on propensity score matching and fully efficient odds-weighted regression, and data from the Kalomo SCT pilot scheme, confirm positive SCT effects on per capita consumption expenditure. We also discover threshold effects with SCT mostly impacting food expenditure among poorer beneficiary households and non-food expenditure among wealthier beneficiaries.
This study uses the odds-weighted regression approach and data from two spatially separated social cash transfer (SCT) programs in Zambia to determine the impact of cash transfers on household welfare. The same analytical framework was also applied on sub-samples of poor and relatively less poor households, where the wealth ranking was done using an asset-based index derived through principal components analysis. The results confirm positive SCT effects on per capita consumption expenditure and that the sizes and relative significance of these effects vary by program design and by the household's asset wealth. The effects were especially unambiguously positive and significant for non-food consumption. While the impact on food expenditure was positive and significant in the rural Kazungula SCT program, the impact on ISSN 2162-4860 2014 www.macrothink.org/ber 290 non-food per capita consumption expenditure was three times greater. In the urban scheme in Chipata, program impacts were only significant on non-food expenditure. Future intervention designs need to take into account such heterogeneity in level and shape of potential impacts if they are to be effective.
Business and Economic ResearchJEL codes: C14, C21, D63, I38.
A good early warning system is one that provides timely planning information to a diverse set of stakeholders. While policy makers need very concise messages for quick decisions, aid and development agencies need very specific and detailed information which can help them in programming at grass-roots level. This paper reviews Zambia's crop monitoring and early warning systems and suggests practical ways to improve its efficiency and effectiveness, taking advantage of existing and potential synergistic and institutional opportunities.
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