This article uses a double-hurdle model with panel data from Malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer. The article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients. Results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0.22 kg of commercial fertilizer, but crowding out ranges from 0.18 among the poorest farmers to 0.30 among relatively nonpoor farmers.This indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use.

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This paper provides a micro-level foundation for discussions of income and asset allocation within the smallholder sector in Eastern and Southern Africa, and explores the implications of these findings for rural growth and poverty alleviation strategies in the region. Results are drawn from nationally-representative household surveys between 1990 and 2000 in five countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Mozambique, and Zambia. The paper shows that farm sizes in most of Africa are declining over time; that farm sizes appear to be declining at a faster rate for households at the low end of the land size distribution; that Gini coefficient measures indicate that farm sizes within the small-farm sectors are generally more inequitably distributed than in Asia and Latin America at the time of their green revolutions, not even considering the serious additional disparities in land allocation that would result if large-scale farming sectors were to be included in the several case countries having bi-modal land distribution patterns; and that the largest part of the variation in per capita farm sizes within the small-farm sectors is, in every country, predominantly within-village rather than between villages. Realistic discussions of poverty alleviation strategies in Africa need to be grounded in the context of these land distribution patterns and trends. The paper concludes by identifying the implications for poverty alleviation strategies.

This study assesses changes over the past decade in the farm size distributions of Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia. Among all farms below 100 hectares in size, the share of land on small-scale holdings under five hectares has declined except in Kenya. Medium-scale farms (defined here as farm holdings between five and 100 hectares) account for a rising share of total farmland, especially in the 10 to 100 hectare range where the number of these farms is growing especially rapidly. Medium-scale farms control roughly 20% of total farmland in Kenya, 32% in Ghana, 39% in Tanzania, and over 50% in Zambia. The rapid rise of medium-scale holdings in most cases reflects increased interest in land by urban-based professionals or influential rural people. About half of these farmers obtained their land later in life, financed by non-farm income. The rise of medium-scale farms is affecting the region in diverse ways that are difficult to generalize. Many such farms are a source of dynamism, technical change and commercialization of African agriculture. However, medium-scale land acquisitions may exacerbate land scarcity in rural areas, which could have important effects given the projected 60% increase in rural Africa's population between 2015 and 2050. Medium-scale farmers tend to dominate farm lobby groups and influence agricultural policies and public expenditures to agriculture in their favor. Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from six countries (Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia) show that urban households own 5% to 35% of total agricultural land and that this share is rising in all countries where DHS surveys were repeated. This suggests a new and hitherto unrecognized channel by which medium-scale farmers may be altering the strength and location of agricultural growth and employment multipliers between rural and urban areas. Given current trends, medium-scale farms are likely to soon become the dominant scale of farming in many African countries.

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The case for promoting export-oriented cash crops in Africa has generally been based on their direct potential contribution to agricultural productivity and small farmer incomes. A relatively neglected avenue of research concerns the synergistic effects that cash cropping can have on other household activities, including food production. The conventional view that cash crops compete with food crops for land and labour neglects the potential for cash crop schemes to make available inputs on credit, management training, and other resources that can contribute to food crop productivity, which might otherwise not be accessible to farmers if they did not participate in cash crop programs. This article builds on previous research by hypothesising key pathways by which cash crops may affect food crop activities and empirically measuring these effects using the case of cotton in Gokwe North District in Zimbabwe. Analysis is based on instrumental variable analysis of survey data on 430 rural households in 1996. Results indicate that_.after controlling for household assets, education and locational differences-households engaging intensively in cotton production obtain higher grain yields than non-cotton and marginal cotton producers. We also find evidence of regional spill-over effects whereby commercialisation schemes induce second round investments in a particular area that provide benefits to all farmers in that region, regardless of whether they engage in that commercialisation scheme. The study suggests that the potential spill-over benefits for food crops through participation in cash crop programs are important to consider in the development of strategies designed to intensify African food crop production.

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