Community-level Impacts of AIDS-Related Mortality: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia*

Abstract

A growing literature has focused on understanding the effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic on rural livelihoods and the agricultural sectors in Africa (Ainsworth, Fransen, and Over; Barnett and Whiteside; Gillespie and Kadiyala; Mather et al.). In some parts of southern Africa, HIV prevalence rates are as high as 30% among individuals between fifteen and forty-five years. Several nationwide household panel surveys from relatively hard-hit countries (Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia) indicate that, over a three-year survey interval, roughly 6 to 10% of rural households suffer one or more disease-related deaths of a prime-aged individual (Yamano and Jayne; Beegle; Chapoto and Jayne, forthcoming), and there is overwhelming evidence that most of the mortality in these age ranges is related to AIDS (Ngom and Clark).However, efforts to accurately estimate the economic impacts of AIDS-related mortality are fraught with difficulties. To date, almost all quantitative micro-level studies have examined the effects of mortality at the household level, even though it is likely that mortality shocks are transmitted across households. In this situation, a relatively small percentage of households incur a shock, but

Demarcating forest, containing disease: land and HIV/AIDS in southern Zambia

“…Maintaining community stability and 'harmony' is an important value intrinsic in many customary dispute resolution processes, and HIV/AIDS and its impacts are seen as one of the critical factors that can disrupt community harmony and well being. Our findings demonstrate that not only are HIV/AIDS related shocks perceived of as negative as Jayne et al (2006) suggest, but also as opportunities, especially as a way of negotiating new claims on property. And while Jayne et al (2006) do note that there are effects on social structures, what is not addressed is how rural communities are reorganizing social structures and social relationships, in order to maximize livelihood security beyond what would have been possible without the presence of the pandemic.…”

“…Our findings demonstrate that not only are HIV/AIDS related shocks perceived of as negative as Jayne et al (2006) suggest, but also as opportunities, especially as a way of negotiating new claims on property. And while Jayne et al (2006) do note that there are effects on social structures, what is not addressed is how rural communities are reorganizing social structures and social relationships, in order to maximize livelihood security beyond what would have been possible without the presence of the pandemic. It is within this latter context that strategies invoking HIV/AIDS to either gain or retain control over land and other resources during inheritance emerge.…”

“…While Jayne et al (2006) argue that the HIV/AIDS mortality shocks occurring in particular households are actually spread across numerous households in a community, we argue that repercussions are felt still more widely and are spread across numerous communities, particularly where migrants are involved. Such broader repercussions reside within the realm of perception of risk, and attempts at maintaining or achieving community stability in the face of the pandemic.…”

“…The number of people infected in southern Africa is hard to measure with precision, as are the disease's actual impacts on agriculture and the environment (Whiteside et al 2006;Drimie 2003;Jayne et al 2006;Yamano and Jayne 2004). But what is clear is that people are changing their behavior to manage the threat and impact of the disease, and that these changes fall outside the realm of sexual behavior and into decisions about access to and management of natural resources in order to secure livelihoods (Frank 2006a).…”

“…But what is clear is that people are changing their behavior to manage the threat and impact of the disease, and that these changes fall outside the realm of sexual behavior and into decisions about access to and management of natural resources in order to secure livelihoods (Frank 2006a). 1 For this reason studies that seek to describe and measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on livelihoods and associated social structures are valuable and have contributed significantly to our understanding of social impacts (e.g., Drimie 2003;Jayne et al 2006;Yamano and Jayne 2004;Barnett et al 1995;Bloom and Mahal 1997;Curry et al 2006). However the literature has yet to consider how people have adapted in various ways to use the pandemic to their advantage in order to better secure livelihoods; particularly in ways that would not otherwise be possible due to customary prescriptions regarding, among other issues, women and land tenure.…”