Recent literature shows great interest in the quantitative study of the determinants of fertility. In a similar way, this study takes an across-country approach to specify independent variables, to separate economic from social and political variables, to make distinct comparisons of fertility responses in developed and underdeveloped countries, and to examine a wide range of hypotheses. The key is empirical analysis by separate regressions. This permits direct comparisons of countries at different levels of development, increases the probability of obtaining statistically significant regression coefficients, and standardizes the analysis for factors which vary with level of development.In this way, the authors determine positive and statistically significant relations between fertility and illiteracy, child mortality, proportion of agricultural population, proportion of nonfarm selfemployment, and overcrowded housing and show a negative significant relationship between fertility and communism. The study does not establish statistically significant relations, however, for population density, social mobility, substitutes for sexual intercourse, achievement motivation, protein in the diet, and religion.In general, the signs of the regression coefficients for the separate levels of development are the same as those for all countries combined. Any failure to attain statistical significance may be explained by small sample size and insufficient variation in the variables for separate levels of development.
The essay challenges Karl Polanyi's position—that ancient Near Eastern economies knew state and temple administration but not price-making markets. It is found that the prerequisite functions of a market economy listed by Polanyi—the allocation of consumer goods, land, and labor through the supply-demand-price mechanism; risk-bearing organized as a market function; and loan markets—were all present in the ancient Near East. Although Polanyi criticized stage theories with their “predilection for continuity” he imposed his own version of continuity on history in lumping together many thousands of years under the rubric of “archaic society.” This perspective prevented him from recognizing that ancient Mesopotamia experienced lengthy and significant periods of unfettered market activity as well as periods of pervasive state regulation.
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