Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States

Silver, Morris

doi:10.1086/259013

Cited by 85 publications

(45 citation statements)

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“…The relationship between economic growth and fertility is then positive or procyclical: if there is a recession, there will be a fertility decline. Most of the evidence supporting these relationships comes from either developed countries (Galbraith and Thomas 1941;Lee 1990;Silver 1965) or analyses of the last global economic recession, which started at the end of 2007 (Morgan, Cumberworth, and Wimer 2011;Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Dávalos¹,

Morales²

2017

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe effects of an economic recession extend beyond financial spheres and spill over into present and future family decisions via income restrictions and expectations. Hardly any research on the effects of economic recession on fertility outcomes has taken place in developing countries. OBJECTIVEThis study seeks to explain the effects of economic cycles on fertility outcomes in poor areas. METHODSThis paper analyzes fertility trends from the third largest economy in Latin AmericaColombia -from 1998 to 2013. We estimate a panel data regression model with state and year fixed effects. RESULTSOn average, periods of recession are associated with fertility decline in poor areas and fertility growth in well-off areas. During an economic crisis, fertility in poor states decreases by 0.002 children per woman, while in well-off states fertility increases by 0.007 children per woman. CONCLUSIONSThe impact of an economic crisis on fertility varies depending on poverty. Poor states have procyclical responses while well-off states tend to have countercyclical reactions to economic downturns. CONTRIBUTIONThis study illuminates the procyclical and countercyclical debate, showing that within a country there can be two different responses to an economic downturn.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Dávalos¹,

Morales²

2017

DemRes

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“…There exists a closely related literature investigating the cyclicality of fertility, which is a literature about fertility timing (e.g., Galbraith and Thomas (1941); Becker (1960);Silver (1965); Ben-Porath (1973)). Changes in the unemployment rate are typically thought to affect the wages of women and their husbands.…”

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confidence: 99%

House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby

Dettling

Kearney

2011

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and Harvard University for helpful comments on this project. The manuscript has also benefited from the suggestions of anonymous referees. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence with other members of the research staff, the Board of Governors, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.© 2011 by Lisa J. Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. ABSTRACTThis project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level housing prices affect household fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current period fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSAlevel house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5 percent increase in fertility rates among owners and a 2.4 percent decrease among nonowners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8 percent increase in current period fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates. This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level housing prices affect household fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current period fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 inc...

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“…szintézisel-mélet is, amely pedig nem támogatja a Becker-féle mennyiségi-minőségi csere fogalmát (pl. Adelman 1963, Freedman 1963, Silver 1965, Freedman -Coombs 1966a, Freedman -Coombs 1966bés Easterlin 1973, elfogadja, hogy a termékenységi ráta csökkenése és a növekvő humántőke-beruházás történelmileg azonos időszakban valósulnak meg. A szintéziselméleten kívüli, de a beckeri gondolatoktól elhatárolódó számos más irányzat több tényezővel magyarázza a termékenységi ráta csökkenését.…”

Section: A Becker-féle Mennyiség éS Minőség Közti Csereunclassified

Az egy főre jutó GDP lehetséges pályái – szimuláció egy demográfiai alapú növekedési modellel

Berde¹,

Kuncz²

2017

Hitelintézeti szemle

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Cikkünk elején felhívjuk a figyelmet a demográfiai alapú növekedési modellek fontosságára, kiemelve az együtt élő nemzedékek gondolatrendszerét. Saját modellünk egyenleteit Lee -Mason (2010) Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kódok: E23, J11, O40Kulcsszavak: együtt élő nemzedékek modellje, termékenységi ráta, túlélési ráta, szimulációs pálya, egy főre jutó GDP BevezetésA gazdasági növekedés szabályosságainak feltárása és a lehetséges jövőbeli pályák előrejelzése azóta izgatja a közgazdászokat, amióta egyáltalán kialakult a közgazdasá-gi gondolkodás 1 . Ennek ellenére a népesség számának és struktúrájának fontosságát * Jelen cikk a szerző nézeteit tartalmazza, és nem feltétlenül tükrözi a Magyar Nemzeti Bank hivatalos álláspontját. Berde Éva a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem egyetemi tanára. E-mail: eva.berde@uni-corvinus.hu Kuncz Izabella a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem egyetemi tanársegéde. E-mail: izabella.kuncz@uni-corvinus.huA kutatást a Pallas Athéné Domus Animae Alapítvány finanszírozta. A cikkben közöltek kizárólag a szerzők véleményét tükrözik.A magyar nyelvű kézirat 2017. június 26-án érkezett szerkesztőségünkbe.DOI: http://doi.org/10.25201/HSZ.16.4.36571 Az első egyértelműen idézhető ilyen jellegű törekvések a klasszikus közgazdasági iskola képviselőinél jelentek meg. Smith (1776) -os munkája például nemcsak a munkamegosztás előnyeit ismertette, hanem kitért arra is, hogy a munkamegosztás segítségével elérhető termelékenységnövekedés fokozza a gazdásági jólétet, és lehetővé teszi a gazdaság jövőbeli fejlődését is.Hitelintézeti Szemle, 16. évf. 4. szám, 2017. december, 36-57. o.

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Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States

Cited by 85 publications

References 0 publications

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby

Az egy főre jutó GDP lehetséges pályái – szimuláció egy demográfiai alapú növekedési modellel

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