Economic crisis promotes fertility decline in poor areas: Evidence from Colombia

Abstract

BACKGROUNDThe effects of an economic recession extend beyond financial spheres and spill over into present and future family decisions via income restrictions and expectations. Hardly any research on the effects of economic recession on fertility outcomes has taken place in developing countries. OBJECTIVEThis study seeks to explain the effects of economic cycles on fertility outcomes in poor areas. METHODSThis paper analyzes fertility trends from the third largest economy in Latin AmericaColombia -from 1998 to 2013. We estimate a panel data regression model with state and year fixed effects. RESULTSOn average, periods of recession are associated with fertility decline in poor areas and fertility growth in well-off areas. During an economic crisis, fertility in poor states decreases by 0.002 children per woman, while in well-off states fertility increases by 0.007 children per woman. CONCLUSIONSThe impact of an economic crisis on fertility varies depending on poverty. Poor states have procyclical responses while well-off states tend to have countercyclical reactions to economic downturns. CONTRIBUTIONThis study illuminates the procyclical and countercyclical debate, showing that within a country there can be two different responses to an economic downturn.

The effects of financial crisis on birth rates in Halabja province from 2014 to 2018

“…It is concluded that the Economic crisis has a bad impact on birth rates, and it can decline the birth rates especially at the time of crises. This result is in line with the results of (Davalos & Morales, 2017) examined the impacts of economic crises on birth rates. They had analyzed the data in Latin America-Colombia from 1998 to 2013.…”

Prediction models and associated factors on the fertility behaviors of the floating population in China

“…People with better personal economic conditions expected more children. Also, in countries and regions with high economic status, the fertility rate of local women was relatively higher ( 59 ). Therefore, it supported the result that the increase in family income could promote reproductive behavior.…”

What is driving the global decline of human fertility? Need for a multidisciplinary approach to the underlying mechanisms

“…China apart, any government that introduces policies that increase the cost of having children and/or the proportion of women in the workforce, has the potential to contribute to a decline in TFR ( 27 ). The overall state of the economy is inevitably a major contributor to declining TFR as exemplified by the negative impact of economic recessions that look place in Spain in 2008 ( 28 ) and between 1998 and 2013 in the poorer areas of Columbia ( 29 ). Conversely, there are many examples of pronatalist policies that can have a positive impact on fertility including: baby bonuses in the form of cash transfers and tax incentives ( 30 ), Scandinavian-style parental leave schemes that provide parents with the opportunity to care for their child without suffering career disadvantage ( 31 ), provision of adequate childcare facilities ( 32 ) and the supply of affordable housing ( 33 , 34 ).…”