Despite the existence of effective rabies vaccines for dogs, dog-transmitted human rabies persists and has reemerged in Africa. Two consecutive dog vaccination campaigns took place in Chad in 2012 and 2013 (coverage of 71% in both years) in the capital city of N'Djaména, as previously published. We developed a deterministic model of dog-human rabies transmission fitted to weekly incidence data of rabid dogs and exposed human cases in N'Djaména. Our analysis showed that the effective reproductive number, that is, the number of new dogs infected by a rabid dog, fell to below one through November 2014. The modeled incidence of human rabies exposure fell to less than one person per million people per year. A phylodynamic estimation of the effective reproductive number from 29 canine rabies virus genetic sequences of the viral N-protein confirmed the results of the deterministic transmission model, implying that rabies transmission between dogs was interrupted for 9 months. However, new dog rabies cases appeared earlier than the transmission and phylodynamic models predicted. This may have been due to the continuous movement of rabies-exposed dogs into N'Djaména from outside the city. Our results show that canine rabies transmission to humans can be interrupted in an African city with currently available dog rabies vaccines, provided that the vaccination area includes larger adjacent regions, and local communities are informed and engaged.

BackgroundOne root cause of the neglect of rabies is the lack of adequate diagnostic tests in the context of low income countries. A rapid, performance friendly and low cost method to detect rabies virus (RABV) in brain samples will contribute positively to surveillance and consequently to accurate data reporting, which is presently missing in the majority of rabies endemic countries.Methodology/Principal findingsWe evaluated a rapid immunodiagnostic test (RIDT) in comparison with the standard fluorescent antibody test (FAT) and confirmed the detection of the viral RNA by real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Our analysis is a multicentre approach to validate the performance of the RIDT in both a field laboratory (N’Djamena, Chad) and an international reference laboratory (Institut Pasteur, Paris, France). In the field laboratory, 48 samples from dogs were tested and in the reference laboratory setting, a total of 73 samples was tested, representing a wide diversity of RABV in terms of animal species tested (13 different species), geographical origin of isolates with special emphasis on Africa, and different phylogenetic clades. Under reference laboratory conditions, specificity was 93.3% and sensitivity was 95.3% compared to the gold standard FAT test. Under field laboratory conditions, the RIDT yielded a higher reliability than the FAT test particularly on fresh and decomposed samples. Viral RNA was later extracted directly from the test filter paper and further used successfully for sequencing and genotyping.Conclusion/SignificanceThe RIDT shows excellent performance qualities both in regard to user friendliness and reliability of the result. In addition, the test cassettes can be used as a vehicle to ship viral RNA to reference laboratories for further laboratory confirmation of the diagnosis and for epidemiological investigations using nucleotide sequencing. The potential for satisfactory use in remote locations is therefore very high to improve the global knowledge of rabies epidemiology. However, we suggest some changes to the protocol, as well as careful further validation, before promotion and wider use.

Transmission of rabies from animals to people continues despite availability of good vaccines for both human and animal use. The only effective strategy to achieve elimination of dog rabies and the related human exposure is to immunize dogs at high coverage levels. We present the analysis of two consecutive parenteral dog mass vaccination campaigns conducted in N'Djamena in 2012 and 2013 to advocate the feasibility and effectiveness for rabies control through proof of concept. The overall coverage reached by the intervention was >70% in both years. Monthly reported rabies cases in dogs decreased by more than 90% within one year. Key points were a cooperative collaboration between the three partner institutions involved in the control program, sufficient information and communication strategy to access local leaders and the public, careful planning of the practical implementation phase and the effective motivation of staff. The dynamic and semi to non-restricted nature of dog populations in most rabies endemic areas is often considered to be a major obstacle to achieve sufficient vaccination coverage. However, we show that feasibility of dog mass vaccination is highly dependent on human determinants of dog population accessibility and the disease awareness of dog owners. Consequently, prior evaluation of the human cultural and socio-economic context is an important prerequisite for planning dog rabies vaccination campaigns.

Rabies claims approximately 59,000 human lives annually and is a potential risk to 3.3 billion people in over 100 countries worldwide. Despite being fatal in almost 100% of cases, human rabies can be prevented by vaccinating dogs, the most common vector, and the timely administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to exposed victims. For the control and prevention of human rabies in N’Djamena, the capital city of Chad, a free mass vaccination campaign for dogs was organized in 2012 and 2013. The campaigns were monitored by parallel studies on the incidence of canine rabies based on diagnostic testing of suspect animals and the incidence of human bite exposure recorded at selected health facilities. Based on the cost description of the campaign and the need for PEP registered in health centers, three cost scenarios were compared: cumulative cost-efficiency of (1) PEP alone, (2) dog mass vaccination and PEP, (3) dog mass vaccination, PEP, and maximal communication between human health and veterinary workers (One Health communication). Assuming ideal One Health communication, the cumulative prospective cost of dog vaccination and PEP break even with the cumulative prospective cost of PEP alone in the 10th year from the start of the calculation (2012). The cost efficiency expressed in cost per human exposure averted is much higher with canine vaccination and One Health communication than with PEP alone. As shown in other studies, our cost-effectiveness analysis highlights that canine vaccination is financially the best option for animal rabies control and rabies prevention in humans. This study also provides evidence of the beneficial effect of One Health communication. Only with close communication between the human and animal health sectors will the decrease in animal rabies incidence be translated into a decline for PEP. An efficiently applied One Health concept would largely reduce the cost of PEP in resource poor countries and should be implemented for zoonosis control in general.

Canine rabies transmission was interrupted in N’Djaména, Chad, following two mass vaccination campaigns. However, after nine months cases resurged with re-establishment of endemic rabies transmission to pre-intervention levels. Previous analyses investigated district level spatial heterogeneity of vaccination coverage, and dog density; and importation, identifying the latter as the primary factor for rabies resurgence. Here we assess the impact of individual level heterogeneity on outbreak probability, effectiveness of vaccination campaigns and likely time to resurgence after a campaign. Geo-located contact sensors recorded the location and contacts of 237 domestic dogs in N’Djaména over a period of 3.5 days. The contact network data showed that urban dogs are socially related to larger communities and constrained by the urban architecture. We developed a network generation algorithm that extrapolates this empirical contact network to networks of large dog populations and applied it to simulate rabies transmission in N’Djaména. The model predictions aligned well with the rabies incidence data. Using the model we demonstrated, that major outbreaks are prevented when at least 70% of dogs are vaccinated. The probability of a minor outbreak also decreased with increasing vaccination coverage, but reached zero only when coverage was near total. Our results suggest that endemic rabies in N’Djaména may be explained by a series of importations with subsequent minor outbreaks. We show that highly connected dogs hold a critical role in transmission and that targeted vaccination of such dogs would lead to more efficient vaccination campaigns.

SummaryBackgroundTens of thousands of people die from dog-mediated rabies annually. Deaths can be prevented through post-exposure prophylaxis for people who have been bitten, and the disease eliminated through dog vaccination. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use saves many lives, but availability remains poor in many rabies-endemic countries due to high costs, poor access, and supply.MethodsWe developed epidemiological and economic models to investigate the effect of an investment in post-exposure prophylaxis by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We modelled post-exposure prophylaxis use according to the status quo, with improved access using WHO-recommended intradermal vaccination, with and without rabies immunoglobulin, and with and without dog vaccination. We took the health provider perspective, including only direct costs.FindingsWe predict more than 1 million deaths will occur in the 67 rabies-endemic countries considered from 2020 to 2035, under the status quo. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use prevents approximately 56 000 deaths annually. Expanded access to, and free provision of, post-exposure prophylaxis would prevent an additional 489 000 deaths between 2020 and 2035. Under this switch to efficient intradermal post-exposure prophylaxis regimens, total projected vaccine needs remain similar (about 73 million vials) yet 17·4 million more people are vaccinated, making this an extremely cost-effective method, with costs of US$635 per death averted and $33 per disability-adjusted life-years averted. Scaling up dog vaccination programmes could eliminate dog-mediated rabies over this time period; improved post-exposure prophylaxis access remains cost-effective under this scenario, especially in combination with patient risk assessments to reduce unnecessary post-exposure prophylaxis use.InterpretationInvesting in post-exposure vaccines would be an extremely cost-effective intervention that could substantially reduce disease burden and catalyse dog vaccination efforts to eliminate dog-mediated rabies.FundingWorld Health Organization.

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