Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FindingsThe global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66-2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17-2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5-137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0-146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2-144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in...

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017 Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low-and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. Gains in child survival have long served as an important proxy measure for improvements in overall population health and development 1,2. Global progress in reducing child deaths has been heralded as one of the greatest success stories of global health 3. The annual global number of deaths of children under 5 years of age (under 5) 4 has declined from 19.6 million in 1950 to 5.4 million in 2017. Nevertheless, these advances in child survival have been far from universally achieved, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) 4. Previous subnational child mortality assessments at the first (that is, states or provinces) or second (that is, districts or counties) administrative level indicate that extensive geographical inequalities persist 5-7. Progress in child survival also diverges across age groups 4. Global reductions in mortality rates of children under 5-that is, the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR)-among post-neonatal age groups are greater than those for mortality of neonates (0-28 days) 4,8. It is relatively unclear how these age patterns are shifting at a more local scale, posing challenges to ensuring child survival. To pursue the ambitious Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the United Nations 9 to "end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5" by 2030, it is vital for decision-makers at all levels to better understand where, and at what ages, child survival remains most tenuous.

Summary Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpreta...

Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000-17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2•5th and 97•5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62•6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000-7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, withincountry geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910-68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs asses...

Background:Evidence-based policy documents that are well developed by senior civil servants and are timely available can reduce the barriers to evidence utilization by health policy makers. This study examined the barriers and facilitators in developing evidence-based health policy documents from the perspective of their producers in a developing country.Methods:In a qualitative study with a framework analysis approach, we conducted semi-structured interviews using purposive and snowball sampling. A qualitative analysis software (MAXQDA-10) was used to apply the codes and manage the data. This study was theory-based and the results were compared to exploratory studies about the factors influencing evidence-based health policymaking.Results:18 codes and three main themes of behavioral, normative, and control beliefs were identified. Factors that influence the development of evidence-based policy documents were identified by the participants: behavioral beliefs included quality of policy documents, use of resources, knowledge and innovation, being time-consuming and contextualization; normative beliefs included policy authorities, policymakers, policy administrators, and co-workers; and control beliefs included recruitment policy, performance management, empowerment, management stability, physical environment, access to evidence, policy making process, and effect of other factors.Conclusion:Most of the cited barriers to the development of evidence-based policy were related to control beliefs, i.e. barriers at the organizational and health system levels. This study identified the factors that influence the development of evidence-based policy documents based on the components of the theory of planned behavior. But in exploratory studies on evidence utilization by health policymakers, the identified factors were only related to control behaviors. This suggests that the theoretical approach may be preferable to the exploratory approach in identifying the barriers and facilitators of a behavior.

Background: SUPPORT tools consist of 18 articles addressing the health policy-makers so that they can learn how to make evidence-informed health policies. These tools have been particularly recommended for developing countries. The present study tries to explain the process of evidence utilization for developing policy documents in the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) and to compare the findings with those of SUPPORT tools. Methods: A qualitative research was conducted, using the framework analysis approach. Participants consisted of senior managers and technicians in MoHME. Purposeful sampling was done, with a maximum variety, for the selection of research participants: individuals having at least 5 years of experience in preparing evidence-based policy documents. Face-to-face interviews were conducted for data collection. As a guideline for the interviews, ‘the Utilization of Evidence in Policy-Making Organizations’ procedure was used. The data were analyzed through the analysis of the framework method using MAXQDA 10 software. Results: The participants acquired the research evidence in a topic-based form, and they were less likely to search on the basis of the evidence pyramid. To assess the quality of evidence, they did not use standard critical tools; to adapt the evidence and interventions with the local setting, they did not use the ideas and experiences of all stakeholders, and in preparing the evidence-based policy documents, they did not take into consideration the window of opportunity, did not refrain from using highly technical terms, did not write user-friendly summaries, and did not present alternative policy options. In order to develop health policies, however, they used the following innovations: attention to the financial burden of policy issues on the agenda, sensitivity analysis of the preferred policy option on the basis of technical, sociopolitical, and economic feasibility, advocacy from other scholars, using the multi-criteria decision-making models for the prioritization of policy options, implementation of policy based on the degree of readiness of policy-implementing units, and the classification of policy documents on the basis of different conditions of policy-making (urgent, short-term, and long-term). Conclusion: Findings showed that the process of evidence utilization in IR-MoH enjoys some innovations for the support of health policy development. The present study provides IR-MoH with considerable opportunities for the improvement of evidence-informed health policy-making. Moreover, the SUPPORT process and tools are recommended to be used in developing countries.

BackgroundAs a well-known theory in studying the effective factors on behaviour, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is frequently used in evaluating the health behaviour of people and healthcare providers, but rarely applied in studying the behaviour of health policymakers. The aim of the present study is to design and validate a TPB-based measurement tool for evidence utilisation in health policymaking (the EUPMT) through a mixed approach using confirmatory factor analysis.MethodsThe study population consisted of all the specialised units and their employees in the five deputies of Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education in 2013. All those eligible were invited to participate in the study, which comprised 373 persons. The reliability of the EUPMT was determined through test-retest and internal consistency. Additionally, its validity was determined by face, content, convergent, discriminant and construct validities. SPSS-20 and LISREL-8.8 were employed to analyse the data. To assess the fitness of the measurement models, three groups of indices were used, i.e. absolute, relative and parsimonious.ResultsThe content and face validities of the tool were 83% and 67%, respectively. Cronbach’s alpha of different constructs ranged from 0.7 to 0.9. In the test-retest method, the intra-class correlations were between 0.75 and 0.87. Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the penta-factorial structure of the experimental data had acceptable fitness with the TPB (GFI = 0.86, NFI = 0.94, RSMEA = 0.075).ConclusionTPB is able to explain the behaviour of evidence utilisation in health policymaking. The finalised TPB-based tool has relatively good reliability and validity to assess evidence utilisation in health policymaking. The EUPMT can be applied to determine the status quo of evidence utilisation in health policymaking, whilst designing interventions for its improvement and assessing their outcomes.

Background In late December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in Wuhan, province of Hubei, People’s Republic of China, and rapidly spread out worldwide. The infectious agent was identified and termed as SARS-CoV-2, responsible of the “coronavirus disease 19” (COVID-19). Due to the lack of vaccines and effective drugs for this disease, many policy- and decision-makers have focused on non-pharmacological methods to prevent and control this disease. Social distancing can be effective in reducing the spread of the outbreak. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of the implementation of the social distancing policy in Iran, one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19. Methods This study was designed as a quasi-experimental study, and was conducted utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach. Daily data was collected between February 20th 2020 and April 16th 2020. The social distancing policy was launched on March 27th 2020.Results A significant decrease of -288.57 (95% CI: 269.08 (95% CI: -83.37 to -621.55, P-value=0.04) new confirmed cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy was found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). A significant decrease of -24.78 (95% CI: -42.97 to -6.58, P-value=0.01) new deaths following the implementation of the social distancing policy could be found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). Conclusion The growth rate of new cases and deaths from the COVID-19 in Iran has significantly decreased after the implementation of social distancing. By monitoring and implementing this policy in all countries, the burden of COVID-19 can be mitigated.