The impact of the social distancing policy on COVID-19 new cases in Iran: insights from an interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

Background In late December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in Wuhan, province of Hubei, People’s Republic of China, and rapidly spread out worldwide. The infectious agent was identified and termed as SARS-CoV-2, responsible of the “coronavirus disease 19” (COVID-19). Due to the lack of vaccines and effective drugs for this disease, many policy- and decision-makers have focused on non-pharmacological methods to prevent and control this disease. Social distancing can be effective in reducing the spread of the outbreak. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of the implementation of the social distancing policy in Iran, one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19. Methods This study was designed as a quasi-experimental study, and was conducted utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach. Daily data was collected between February 20th 2020 and April 16th 2020. The social distancing policy was launched on March 27th 2020.Results A significant decrease of -288.57 (95% CI: 269.08 (95% CI: -83.37 to -621.55, P-value=0.04) new confirmed cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy was found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). A significant decrease of -24.78 (95% CI: -42.97 to -6.58, P-value=0.01) new deaths following the implementation of the social distancing policy could be found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). Conclusion The growth rate of new cases and deaths from the COVID-19 in Iran has significantly decreased after the implementation of social distancing. By monitoring and implementing this policy in all countries, the burden of COVID-19 can be mitigated.

Telehealth mask wearing training for children with autism during the COVID‐19 pandemic

“…Mitigating actions to reduce the rate of infection have included emergency lockdowns, travel restrictions (Ji et al, 2020), and behavioral recommendations such as thorough and frequent hand‐washing, social distancing, and avoiding hand‐to‐face contact (Güner et al, 2020). Ongoing research studies offer support for the effectiveness of nonpharmacological strategies to slow the spread of the disease (e.g., social distancing, Ghanbari et al, 2020; hand‐washing, Pogrebna & Kharlamov, 2020). In addition, the use of face masks has been suggested as an important risk mitigation strategy against virus transmission (Cheng et al, 2020; Esposito & Principi, 2020).…”

The effect of lockdown on the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: evidence from an interrupted time series design

“…Siedner et al 21 , also employing ITS to evaluate the effect of social distancing policies in the United States, found a statistically significant daily decrease of 0.8% on mean state-level COVID-19 epidemic growth. Ghanbari et al 22 assessed the impact of lockdown policies on SARS-CoV-2 in Iran, and the results indicate an average decrease of 288.57 on new confirmed cases and 24.67 deaths after the policy intervention.…”

Hành Vi Thực Hiện Phòng, Chống Dịch Covid-19 Của Người Việt Nam Trong Thời Gian Giãn Cách Xã Hội Toàn Dân: Một Khảo Sát Cắt Ngang

“…However, how environmental factors impact preventive behaviors remains unclear. In a recent study, Ghanbari et al (2020) demonstrate that knowledge and attitudes towards social distancing policies have a positive effect on the preventive behavior of people in Iran. That effect contributes to a rapid reduction in the number of infections and deaths.…”