The effect of lockdown on the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: evidence from an interrupted time series design

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have implemented social distancing policies with different levels of both enforcement and compliance. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate the impact of lockdowns on reducing the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil. Official daily data was collected for four city capitals before and after their respective policies interventions based on a 14 days observation window. We estimated a segmented linear regression to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures on COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The initial number of new cases and new deaths had a positive trend prior to policy change. After lockdown, a statistically significant decrease in new confirmed cases was found in all state capitals. We also found evidence that lockdown measures were likely to reverse the trend of new daily deaths due to COVID-19. In São Luís, we observed a reduction of 37.85% while in Fortaleza the decrease was 33.4% on the average difference in daily deaths if the lockdown had not been implemented. Similarly, the intervention diminished mortality in Recife by 21.76% and Belém by 16.77%. Social distancing policies can be useful tools in flattening the epidemic curve.

Excesso de mortes por causas respiratórias em oito metrópoles brasileiras durante os seis primeiros meses da pandemia de COVID-19

“…Embora Belém, Fortaleza e Recife tenham adotado lockdown em maio, semanas depois do pico epidêmico de abril (InfoGripe. https://gitlab.procc.fiocruz.br/mave/repo/-/tree/master/Boletins%20 do%20InfoGripe/Imagens/Capitais, acessado em 03/Nov/2020), a sua implantação parece ter tido impacto favorável sobre a diminuição do número de casos novos e de mortes devido à COVID-19 40 , o que pode ter limitado percentuais de mortes excedentes ainda maiores nas semanas seguintes.…”

Impact of a Single-Day Lockdown on COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

“…A limited number of ITS analyses have been conducted in this regard, and all of them showed that social distancing is effective in reducing the number of cases related to COVID-19 [ 16 , 17 ]. Silva et al found a statistically significant reduction in new confirmed cases in different state capitals in Brazil after a period of lockdown ranging from 13 to 23 days [ 16 ]. Tobías et al also reported a reduction in daily cases and ICU admission after the implementation of strict measures in Italy and Spain [ 17 ].…”

Biosafety, life and COVID-19: Online questionnaire

“…In this work it was also noticed that a higher percentage continues to just go out to work showing the economic need of the population. According to the literature [30][31][32][33] , attitudes that don't follow social isolation and that prioritize economics above all, as the political position of Brazil president of the current year -2020, contribute to a greater number of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from COVID-19.…”