Arctic coastal erosion demands more attention as the global climate continues to change. Unlike those along low-latitude and mid-latitude, sediments along Arctic coastlines are often frozen, even during summer. Thermal and mechanical factors must be considered together when analysing Arctic coastal erosion. Two major erosion mechanisms in the Arctic have been identified: thermodenudation and thermoabrasion. Field observations of Arctic coastal erosion are available in Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea. The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic model of thermoabrasion to simulate the measured coastal erosion at two sites where observations suggest thermoabrasion is dominant. The model simulates two time periods: (a) the summer of 2013 (2012–2013) and (b) the summer of 2017 (2016–2017). A probabilistic analysis is performed to quantify the uncertainties in the model results. The input parameters are assumed to follow normal and lognormal distributions with a 10% coefficient of variation. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to determine the erosion rates for the two different cases. The simulation results agree reasonably well with the field observations. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed, revealing a very high sensitivity of the model to sea-level changes. The model indicates that the relation between sea-level rise and thermoabrasional erosion is exponential.
Various models have recently been developed to describe Arctic coastal erosion. Current process-based models simulate multiple physical processes and combine them interactively to resemble the unique mechanism of Arctic coastal erosion. One limitation of such models is the difficulty of including hydrodynamic forces. The available coastal erosion models developed for warmer climates cannot be applied to Arctic coastal erosion, where permafrost is a significant environmental parameter. This paper explains a methodology that allows us to use the models designed for warmer climates to simulate Arctic coastal erosion. The open-source software XBeach is employed to simulate the waves, sediment transport and morphological changes. We developed different submodules for the processes unique to Arctic coasts, such as thawing–freezing, slumping, wave-cut niche, bluff failure, etc. The submodules are coupled with XBeach to enable concurrent simulation of the two mechanisms of Arctic coastal erosion, namely thermodenudation and thermoabrasion. Some of the model’s input parameters are calibrated using field measurements from the Arctic coast of Kara Sea, Russia. The model is then validated by another set of mutually exclusive field measurements under different morphological conditions from the study area. The sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that nearshore waves are an important driver of erosion, and the inclusion of nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport are essential for accurately modelling the erosion mechanism.
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