The objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution of productivity and the contribution of structural change to productivity growth in Tunisia since the mid eighties. Using sectoral and firm data we show that productivity increased at a relatively interesting pace, but that the contribution of structural change remained very limited. Trade and labor market reforms did not seem to increase it. The main reasons are barriers to entry in some sectors, the inefficiency of factor markets, and the focus of the firms' upgrading program only on some selected sectors. JEL Classification: O14, 047, 055

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war‐torn economy on the economy of a neighbouring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labour market, the production apparatus and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high‐skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labour market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long‐term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.

University Paris IX, Dauphine, and DIAL, Paris. Gautier, Marouani and Raffinot dedicate this article to the memory of Idrissa Dante, who tragically died before the final results of their collaboration could be published. The report on which the article is based benefited from the comments of Howard White, Günter Hornung (GTZ, Bamako) and an IMF team whom the authors would like to thank for their comments. 1. Notably, the existence of a previous UNDP-driven National Poverty Alleviation Strategy (SNLP) created problems at the start of the process.2. During our first visit to Mali for this research (September 2000), the persons we interviewed often got the PRSP and the SNLP mixed up.

This article analyses how a crisis impacts labour markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages between migration, the labour market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modelling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result of this study is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline.

The combination of demographic factors and an increase in education has caused a significant rise of university graduates' unemployment in the Middle-East and North Africa regions. This article provides a prospective cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of alternative labour market policies using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The model allows for an endogenous determination of unemployment through a multisectoral efficiency wage setting mechanism. The main finding is that a wage subsidy targeted at highly skilled intensive sectors is more effective than tax reductions or investment subsidies. However, wage subsidies are not enough to reduce unemployment significantly. Other policy options need to be considered.