Motivation: The EU sugar industry is one of the most regulated industry which is subject to import duties, subsidies and quotas. Government intervention in sugar markets significantly affects sugar production, consumption and trade. The GATT/WTO negotiations led to the commencement of the liberalization process in the EU sugar market, and initiated a number of reforms aimed at abolishing government support. Consequently, the sugar market in the EU has undergone considerable changes. Proper recognition of the directions of changes will contribute to reducing the difficulties of entities operating on the global sugar market. Aim: The purpose of this publication is to present the forecasts made in 2017 regarding the main categories characterizing the EU sugar market and to verify their validity following the analysis of the actual data. The work uses the forecasts made for 2017–2020 based on empirical data collected from 1993–2016, and then verifies their validity when set against the real data. Results: The results of the research showed that statistical models are not able to predict correctly not only the forecasted values, but also the directions of their changes. The range of indicators of forecast errors was almost 40 percentage points, which reduced their credibility. The Pearson correlation index of over 0.7 indicated a significant correlation between the real data and the forecast values for the consumption or sugar beet harvest, while interpreting the discrepancy coefficient index, which did not exceed 1 for the forecast of the sugar production volume. This allows to conclude that this forecast shows the smallest differentiation in comparison to the actual data obtained.
In the article two main goals were indicated. The first is to verify the hypothesis that there is not a relevant relationship between limiting the impact of state intervention mechanisms and sugar prices on world exchanges. The second goal is to choose the best model for forecasting sugar prices after the abolition of the sugar quotas on domestic markets of sugar producers. The starting point for building the model was the time series of sugar prices on a monthly basis on world stock exchanges – London and New York in 1990–2020. One of the three models was used for forecasting. Sugar prices on world stock exchanges showed large fluctuations amounting to USD cents 28 per pound of sugar for white sugar, while for raw sugar the figure was slightly lower and reached USD cents 26 per pound. On average, in 1990–2020, the nominal price for white sugar was 16 cents per pound, and for raw sugar -12 cents per pounds. However, the level of sugar prices in the world is determined primarily by market factors, rather than administrative constraints.
The aim of the article was to assess the development process of dairy cooperatives in Poland over the last 150 years, with the economic situation and the impact of legal regulations taken into account, and to assess empirical research findings on how dairy cooperatives operate according to their members (benefits of membership, development opportunities and threats). Despite the long tradition and experience in cooperation between dairies and farmers, the period of the centrally planned economy and economic transformation brought many changes. Poland’s EU accession has improved their development opportunities. The cooperatives have a high share in the milk purchase and dairy product sale. The cooperation with farmers has improved. However, there are still areas that need to be improved in the real spirit of the cooperative idea because they concern the basic economic benefits of membership and the principles of function of coops.
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