Prediction of global sugar prices after abolition of EU sugar quotas

Abstract

In the article two main goals were indicated. The first is to verify the hypothesis that there is not a relevant relationship between limiting the impact of state intervention mechanisms and sugar prices on world exchanges. The second goal is to choose the best model for forecasting sugar prices after the abolition of the sugar quotas on domestic markets of sugar producers. The starting point for building the model was the time series of sugar prices on a monthly basis on world stock exchanges – London and New York in 1990–2020. One of the three models was used for forecasting. Sugar prices on world stock exchanges showed large fluctuations amounting to USD cents 28 per pound of sugar for white sugar, while for raw sugar the figure was slightly lower and reached USD cents 26 per pound. On average, in 1990–2020, the nominal price for white sugar was 16 cents per pound, and for raw sugar -12 cents per pounds. However, the level of sugar prices in the world is determined primarily by market factors, rather than administrative constraints.

Dairy processing industry in the European Union: Country-group clustering in pre and post-milk quota abolishment periods

“…Due to the overall decline in milk consumption in Europe and the self-sufficiency rate of more than 100%, EU milk exports are increasing (Cavapozzi et al, 2020).…”

“…The dairy industry in the EU has come through significant structural changes over the years due to price changes, weather, environment, and policy settings (Cele et al, 2021). After the abolition of the milk quota, the European Union has become the largest exporter of dairy products (Budzyńska and Chojnacki, 2018). The abolition of milk quotas in the European Union in 2015 has started a significant expansion in the dairy sector in many countries of the European Union, most notably in Ireland and the Netherlands.…”