Abstract. Interpolation of spatial data has been regarded in many different forms, varying from deterministic to stochastic, parametric to nonparametric, and purely data-driven to geostatistical methods. In this study, we propose a nonparametric interpolator, which combines information theory with probability aggregation methods in a geostatistical framework for the stochastic estimation of unsampled points. Histogram via entropy reduction (HER) predicts conditional distributions based on empirical probabilities, relaxing parameterizations and, therefore, avoiding the risk of adding information not present in data. By construction, it provides a proper framework for uncertainty estimation since it accounts for both spatial configuration and data values, while allowing one to introduce or infer properties of the field through the aggregation method. We investigate the framework using synthetically generated data sets and demonstrate its efficacy in ascertaining the underlying field with varying sample densities and data properties. HER shows a comparable performance to popular benchmark models, with the additional advantage of higher generality. The novel method brings a new perspective of spatial interpolation and uncertainty analysis to geostatistics and statistical learning, using the lens of information theory.

Abstract. Soil moisture at the catchment scale exhibits a huge spatial variability. This suggests that even a large amount of observation points would not be able to capture soil moisture variability. We present a measure to capture the spatial dissimilarity and its change over time. Statistical dispersion among observation points is related to their distance to describe spatial patterns. We analyzed the temporal evolution and emergence of these patterns and used the mean shift clustering algorithm to identify and analyze clusters. We found that soil moisture observations from the 19.4 km2 Colpach catchment in Luxembourg cluster in two fundamentally different states. On the one hand, we found rainfall-driven data clusters, usually characterized by strong relationships between dispersion and distance. Their spatial extent roughly matches the average hillslope length in the study area of about 500 m. On the other hand, we found clusters covering the vegetation period. In drying and then dry soil conditions there is no particular spatial dependence in soil moisture patterns, and the values are highly similar beyond hillslope scale. By combining uncertainty propagation with information theory, we were able to calculate the information content of spatial similarity with respect to measurement uncertainty (when are patterns different outside of uncertainty margins?). We were able to prove that the spatial information contained in soil moisture observations is highly redundant (differences in spatial patterns over time are within the error margins). Thus, they can be compressed (all cluster members can be substituted by one representative member) to only a fragment of the original data volume without significant information loss. Our most interesting finding is that even a few soil moisture time series bear a considerable amount of information about dynamic changes in soil moisture. We argue that distributed soil moisture sampling reflects an organized catchment state, where soil moisture variability is not random. Thus, only a small amount of observation points is necessary to capture soil moisture dynamics.

Agroforestry is often discussed as a strategy that can be used both for the adaptation to and the mitigation of climate change effects. The climate of southern Africa is predicted to be severely affected by such changes. With agriculture noted as the continent’s largest economic sector, issues such as food security and land degradation are in the forefront. In the light of such concerns we review the current literature to investigate if agroforestry systems (AFS) are a suitable response to the challenges besetting traditional agricultural caused by a changing climate. The benefits bestowed by AFS are multiple, offering ecosystem services, influence over crop production and positive impacts on rural livelihoods through provisioning and income generation. Nevertheless, knowledge gaps remain. We identify outstanding questions requiring further investigation such as the interplay between trees and crops and their combination, with a discussion of potential benefits. Furthermore, we identify deficiencies in the institutional and policy frameworks that underlie the adoption and stimulus of AFS in the southern African region. We uphold the concept that AFS remains an appropriate and sustainable response for an increased resilience against a changing climate in southern Africa for the benefit of livelihoods and multiple environmental values.

Abstract. Geostatistical methods are widely used in almost all geoscientific disciplines, i.e. for interpolation, re-scaling, data assimilation or modelling. At its core geostatistics aims to detect, quantify, describe, analyze and model spatial covariance of observations. The variogram, a tool to describe this spatial covariance in a formalized way, is at the heart of every such method. Unfortunately, many applications of geostatistics rather focus on the interpolation method or the result, than the quality of the estimated variogram. Not least because estimating a variogram is commonly left as a task for computers and some software implementations do not even show a variogram to the user. This is a miss, because the quality of the variogram largely determines, whether the application of geostatistics makes sense at all. Furthermore, the Python programming language was missing a mature, well-established and tested package for variogram estimation a couple of years ago. Here I present SciKit-GStat, an open source Python package for variogram estimation, that fits well into established frameworks for scientific computing and puts the focus on the variogram before more sophisticated methods are about to be applied. SciKit-GStat is written in a mutable, object-oriented way that mimics the typical geostatistical analysis workflow. Its main strength is the ease of usage and interactivity and it is therefore usable with only a little or even no knowledge in Python. During the last few years, other libraries covering geostatistics for Python developed along with SciKit-GStat. Today, the most important ones can be interfaced by SciKit-GStat. Additionally, established data structures for scientific computing are reused internally, to keep the user from learning complex data models, just for using SciKit-GStat. Common data structures along with powerful interfaces enable the user to use SciKit-GStat along with other packages in established workflows, rather than forcing the user to stick to the authors programming paradigms. SciKit-GStat ships with a large number of predefined procedures, algorithms and models, such as variogram estimators, theoretical spatial models or binning algorithms. Common approaches to estimate variograms are covered and can be used out of the box. At the same time, the base class is very flexible and can be adjusted to less common problems, as well. Last but not least, it was made sure, that a user is aided at implementing new procedures, or even extending the core functionality as much as possible, to extend SciKit-GStat to uncovered use-cases. With broad documentation, user guide, tutorials and good unit-test coverage, SciKit-GStat enables the user to focus on variogram estimation, rather than implementation details.

Abstract. Geostatistical methods are widely used in almost all geoscientific disciplines, i.e., for interpolation, rescaling, data assimilation or modeling. At its core, geostatistics aims to detect, quantify, describe, analyze and model spatial covariance of observations. The variogram, a tool to describe this spatial covariance in a formalized way, is at the heart of every such method. Unfortunately, many applications of geostatistics focus on the interpolation method or the result rather than the quality of the estimated variogram. Not least because estimating a variogram is commonly left as a task for computers, and some software implementations do not even show a variogram to the user. This is a miss, because the quality of the variogram largely determines whether the application of geostatistics makes sense at all. Furthermore, the Python programming language was missing a mature, well-established and tested package for variogram estimation a couple of years ago. Here I present SciKit-GStat, an open-source Python package for variogram estimation that fits well into established frameworks for scientific computing and puts the focus on the variogram before more sophisticated methods are about to be applied. SciKit-GStat is written in a mutable, object-oriented way that mimics the typical geostatistical analysis workflow. Its main strength is the ease of use and interactivity, and it is therefore usable with only a little or even no knowledge of Python. During the last few years, other libraries covering geostatistics for Python developed along with SciKit-GStat. Today, the most important ones can be interfaced by SciKit-GStat. Additionally, established data structures for scientific computing are reused internally, to keep the user from learning complex data models, just for using SciKit-GStat. Common data structures along with powerful interfaces enable the user to use SciKit-GStat along with other packages in established workflows rather than forcing the user to stick to the author's programming paradigms. SciKit-GStat ships with a large number of predefined procedures, algorithms and models, such as variogram estimators, theoretical spatial models or binning algorithms. Common approaches to estimate variograms are covered and can be used out of the box. At the same time, the base class is very flexible and can be adjusted to less common problems, as well. Last but not least, it was made sure that a user is aided in implementing new procedures or even extending the core functionality as much as possible, to extend SciKit-GStat to uncovered use cases. With broad documentation, a user guide, tutorials and good unit-test coverage, SciKit-GStat enables the user to focus on variogram estimation rather than implementation details.