Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.

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Diabetes mellitus and hypertension are two common non-communicable diseases (NCDs) that often coexist in patients. However, health-seeking behaviour in patients with diabetes mellitus or hypertension has not been extensively studied especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to examine care-seeking dynamics among participants diagnosed with diabetes and/or hypertension across nine counties in rural Kenya. We conducted a cross-sectional study among adults diagnosed with diabetes and/or hypertension through face-to-face interviews. Of the 1100 participants, 69.9% had hypertension, 15.5% diabetes while 14.7% had both. The mean age of the respondents was 64 years. The majority of the respondents (86%) were on allopathic treatment. Hospital admission, having a good self-rated health status and having social support for illness, were positively associated with appropriate health-seeking behaviour while use of alcohol and pharmacy or chemist as source of treatment were negatively associated with appropriate health-seeking behaviour. Our study found a high prevalence of appropriate health-seeking behaviour among respondents with the majority obtaining care from government facilities. The results are evidence that improving public health care services can promote appropriate health-seeking behaviour for non-communicable diseases and thus improve health outcomes.

dDisease severity in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis is associated with mycobacterial sputum load. To ascertain whether reduced sputum production during treatment is a useful clinical sign of improvement, we analyzed the mycobacterial loads of 5,552 sputum samples collected from 439 newly diagnosed sputum smear-positive tuberculosis patients who participated in six 14-day studies of antituberculosis treatment. Sputum volumes were categorized as low (<6 ml), medium (6 to 10 ml), or large (>10 ml), and mycobacterial load was measured by the time to positivity in liquid culture and the CFU counts on solid culture. The association of sputum volume with mycobacterial load was estimated with multiple linear regression models adjusted for repeated measures. The predictor variables were sputum volume category, treatment day, specific study , and the interaction of sputum volume category and treatment day. Mycobacterial load was significantly associated only with the day on treatment and sputum volume, which tended to decrease with ongoing treatment. With the volume held constant, each day on treatment decreased the log CFU by 0.082 (P < 0.001) and increased the time to positivity (TTP) by 1.04 h (P < 0.001). From low to medium and from medium to large sputum volumes, the log CFU/ml increased by 0.265 (P < 0.003) and 0.490 (P < 0.001), respectively, and the TTP decreased by 1.17 h (P < 0.001) and 1.30 h (P < 0.001), respectively, for a given day of treatment. The variability of the sputum load measurements increased with the day of treatment and lower sputum volumes. The significant association of sputum volume and mycobacterial load validates decreasing sputum production as a clinical sign of improvement during early antituberculosis treatment.T uberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 8.5 million new TB cases and 1.3 million TB deaths occurred globally (1). In 2008, the incidence of TB in South Africa was 960 cases per 100,000 people, with an annual increase of 6.4% from 1998 to 2008 (2). TB is most commonly diagnosed by the identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in expectorated spot sputum specimens, either by sputum smear microscopy or by the identification of mycobacterial antigens with PCR (3). The viable sputum mycobacterial load can be measured by counting CFU on agar plates or by the time to positivity (TTP) in culture with liquid medium (4-6). Greater initial spot sputum mycobacterial burden has been linked to more extensive radiological lung involvement, worse treatment outcomes, and a higher risk of relapse (7-9), and more recently, greater sputum volume has been linked to worse treatment outcomes in HIV-infected TB patients (10).The decrease in the sputum mycobacterial burden in pooled 16-h sputum samples collected overnight is an established measure of early antituberculosis drug effects over the first 2 weeks of treatment (11), but few studies have assessed the association of sputum volumes with measu...

Background: Diarrheal and acute respiratory infections remain a major cause of death in developing countries especially among children below 5 years of age. About 80% of all hospital attendances in Kenya can be attributed to preventable diseases and at least 50% of these preventable diseases are linked to poor sanitation. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of a community-based health education program, called Familia Nawiri, in reducing the risk of diarrhea and respiratory infections among people living in three rural Kenyan communities. Methods: Cases were defined as patients attending the health facility due to diarrhea or a respiratory infection while controls were patients attending the same health facility for a non-communicable disease defined as an event other than diarrhea, respiratory infection. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a logistic regression model to assess the risk of diarrheal or respiratory infection in association with exposure to the health education program. Results: There were 324 cases and 308 controls recruited for the study with 57% of the cases and 59% of the controls being male. Overall, 13% of cases vs. 20% of control patients were exposed to the education program. Participants exposed to the program had 38% lower odds of diarrhea and respiratory infections compared to those not exposed to the program (adjusted OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.96). A similar risk reduction was observed for participants in the study who resided in areas with water improvement initiatives (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.47-0.90). Variables in the adjusted model included water improvement projects in the area and toilet facilities. Conclusion: Findings from this study suggest participants exposed to the education program and those residing in areas with water improvement initiatives have a reduced risk of having diarrhea or respiratory infection.

We investigated the effect of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture supernatant added to sputum cultures collected during the first 8 weeks of anti-tuberculosis treatment. With ongoing treatment duration, time to culture positivity decreased significantly in supernatant-enriched cultures, possibly due to stimulation of dormant or slowly metabolizing M. tuberculosis cells.

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