Predictors of COVID-19 Epidemics in Countries of the World Health Organisation African Region

Zhang, Feifei; Karamagi, Humphrey; Nsenga, Ngoy; Nanyunja, Miriam; Karinja, Miriam N.; Amanfo, Seth; Chase-Topping, Margo; Calder-Gerver, Giles; McGibbon, Miles; Huber, Alexandra C.; Wagner-Gamble, Tara; Guo, Chuan‐Guo; Haynes, Samuel; Morrison, Alistair; Ferguson, Miranda; Awandare, Gordon A.; Mutapi, Francisca; Yoti, Zabulon; Cabore, Joseph; Moeti, Matshidiso; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3831121

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…10,11 However, up to 75% of Covid-19 cases have not been reported in developing countries due to the lack or absence of recognition tests. 12 Even the analysis of "excess deaths" estimates for every country in the world indicates that the total mortality rate of this pandemic is probably more than what has been reported. For example, in India, economist estimates show that up to the beginning of May 2021, compared to the 20,000 official deaths, probably 2.3 million people have lost their lives due to Covid-19.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Studies have shown that countries with higher developing healthcare indices like the United States, UK, Spain, Italy, and South Korea have had ‏higher recognition of incidence and mortality rates compared to developing countries due to access to healthcare services, data clarity, and higher amount of Covid‐19 rapid recognition tests 10,11 . However, up to 75% of Covid‐19 cases have not been reported in developing countries due to the lack or absence of recognition tests 12 . Even the analysis of “excess deaths” estimates for every country in the world indicates that the total mortality rate of this pandemic is probably more than what has been reported.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of the relationship between national rates of Covid‐19 incidence and mortality as reported to an international comparison database: An ecological study

Shokri

Mahmoodi

Piroozi

et al. 2023

Health Science Reports

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Background and Aims: Making a judgment only based on formal national reports can be misleading. We aimed to assess the relationship between countries' development indicators and reported coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)-related incidences and death. Methods: Covid-19 related incidence and death cases were extracted from the updated Humanitarian Data Exchange Website on October 8, 2021. Univariable and multivariable negative binomial regression were utilized to investigate the relationship between development indicator and incidence and mortality from Covid-19 by calculating the Incidence rate ratio (IRR), mortality rate ratio (MRR), and fatality risk ratio (FRR).Results: Very high human development index (HDI) compared with low HDI (IRR:3.56; MRR:9.04), the proportion of physicians (IRR:1.20; MRR:1.16), besides extreme poverty (IRR:1.01; MRR:1.01) were independently correlated with the mortality and incidence rate of Covid-19. Very high HDI and population density were inversely correlated with the fatality risk (FRRs of 0.54 and 0.99). The crosscontinental comparison shows Europe and the North Americas, had significantly higher incidence and mortality rates with IRR of 3.56 and 1.84 as well as MRRs of 6.65 and 3.62, respectively. Also, they inversely correlated with the fatality (FRR:0.84 and 0.91, respectively). Conclusion: A positive correlation between the fatality rate ratio based on countries'development indicators and the reverse for the incidence and mortality rate was found. Developed countries with sensitive healthcare systems can diagnose infected cases as soon as possible. Also, the mortality rate of Covid-19 will be accurately registered and reported. Due to more access to diagnostic tests, patients are diagnosed at the initial stages and will have a better opportunity to receive treatment. This leads to higher reports of incidence/and/or mortality rates and lower fatality of COVID-19. In conclusion, more Covid-19 incidence and mortality cases in

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of the relationship between national rates of Covid‐19 incidence and mortality as reported to an international comparison database: An ecological study

Shokri

Mahmoodi

Piroozi

et al. 2023

Health Science Reports

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The spread and burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison between predictions and actual data and lessons learned

Fokoua-Maxime

Bellouche

Tchigui-Ariolle

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Introduction Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was predicted to be severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but the actual data seem to have contradicted these forecasts. This study attempted to verify this observation by comparing predictions against actual data on the spread and burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in SSA. Methods Focused on the period from March 1 st to September 30 th , 2020, we compared (1) the predicted interval dates when each SSA country would report 1 000 and 10 000 COVID-19 cases, to the actual dates when these numbers were attained, as well as (2) the daily number of predicted versus actual COVID-19 cases. Further, we calculated the case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 infection in SSA, and the correlation coefficient between the weekly average number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by each country and the weekly average stringency index of its anti-COVID-19 policy measures. Results 84.61% (33) and 100% (39) of the 39 SSA countries for which predictions were made did not reach a total of 1 000 and 10 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases at the predicted interval dates. The daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was lower than the one projected for all SSA countries. The case fatality ratio of the COVID-19 infection in SSA was 3.42%. Among the 44 SSA countries for which the correlation could be estimated, it was negative for 17 (38.6%) of them. Conclusions The natural characteristics of SSA and the public health measures implemented might partly explain that the actual data were lower than the predictions on the COVID-19 pandemic in SSA, but the low case ascertainment and the numerous asymptomatic cases did significantly influence this observation.

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Coronavirus disease-19 vaccine uptake, willingness for vaccination, and associated Factors among chronic follow patients attending in the two comprehensive specialized hospitals of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Tegegne,

Kebede,

Biresaw

et al. 2024

BMC Infect Dis

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Background Even though the disease has spread throughout the world, with millions killed, global COVID-19 vaccination coverage remains low, particularly in developing countries. However, epidemiological data is lacking in the area. Hence, this study aimed to assess COVID-19 uptake, willingness for vaccination, and associated factors. Method A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from May 1 to June 30, 2022, among patients attending chronic follow-up clinics in the two comprehensive specialized hospitals in Bahir Dar. The total sample size was 423. Participants were selected by a systematic random sampling technique. Data was gathered using a pre-tested questionnaire and analyzed using SPSS version 23. A descriptive analysis was performed. A binary logistic regression analysis was done to assess the association between variables. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 in the multi-variable logistic regression with a 95% confidence interval were considered statistically significant. Results The analysis included 400 out of 423 participants, representing a 95% response rate. The COVID-19 vaccination uptake was 46.8%, while the acceptance was 60.5%. About 56% and 68% of the respondents had good knowledge and a favorable attitude, respectively. Elderly people were 2.7 times more likely to be vaccinated. Similarly, urban residents were 3.94 times more vaccinated. The probability of being vaccinated among respondents with good knowledge and favorable attitudes was 70% and 79%, respectively. The willingness for vaccination increased among those individuals with favorable attitudes (AOR: 1.82). Urban people were less likely to accept vaccination (AOR: 0.46). Some participants misunderstood that vaccination may aggravate their disease condition. Conclusion The overall COVID-19 vaccine uptake and acceptance for vaccination were low compared to what was estimated by the WHO. Age, residence, knowledge, and attitude were associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake and acceptance of vaccination. Besides, there was a high level of rumor about the status of the vaccine and risk factors. Hence, special emphasis is warranted to deliver centrally trusted information. Moreover, further nationwide studies are warranted in the future.

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Predictors of COVID-19 Epidemics in Countries of the World Health Organisation African Region

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

An assessment of the relationship between national rates of Covid‐19 incidence and mortality as reported to an international comparison database: An ecological study

An assessment of the relationship between national rates of Covid‐19 incidence and mortality as reported to an international comparison database: An ecological study

The spread and burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison between predictions and actual data and lessons learned

Coronavirus disease-19 vaccine uptake, willingness for vaccination, and associated Factors among chronic follow patients attending in the two comprehensive specialized hospitals of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

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