BackgroundFew studies of dengue have shown group-level associations between demographic, socioeconomic, or geographic characteristics and the spatial distribution of dengue within small urban areas. This study aimed to examine whether specific characteristics of an urban slum community were associated with the risk of dengue disease.Methodology/Principal FindingsFrom 01/2009 to 12/2010, we conducted enhanced, community-based surveillance in the only public emergency unit in a slum in Salvador, Brazil to identify acute febrile illness (AFI) patients with laboratory evidence of dengue infection. Patient households were geocoded within census tracts (CTs). Demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical data were obtained from the 2010 national census. Associations between CTs characteristics and the spatial risk of both dengue and non-dengue AFI were assessed by Poisson log-normal and conditional auto-regressive models (CAR). We identified 651 (22.0%) dengue cases among 2,962 AFI patients. Estimated risk of symptomatic dengue was 21.3 and 70.2 cases per 10,000 inhabitants in 2009 and 2010, respectively. All the four dengue serotypes were identified, but DENV2 predominated (DENV1: 8.1%; DENV2: 90.7%; DENV3: 0.4%; DENV4: 0.8%). Multivariable CAR regression analysis showed increased dengue risk in CTs with poorer inhabitants (RR: 1.02 for each percent increase in the frequency of families earning ≤1 times the minimum wage; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04), and decreased risk in CTs located farther from the health unit (RR: 0.87 for each 100 meter increase; 95% CI: 0.80-0.94). The same CTs characteristics were also associated with non-dengue AFI risk.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study highlights the large burden of symptomatic dengue on individuals living in urban slums in Brazil. Lower neighborhood socioeconomic status was independently associated with increased risk of dengue, indicating that within slum communities with high levels of absolute poverty, factors associated with the social gradient influence dengue transmission. In addition, poor geographic access to health services may be a barrier to identifying both dengue and non-dengue AFI cases. Therefore, further spatial studies should account for this potential source of bias.

Zika virus was responsible for the microcephaly epidemic in Brazil which began in October 2015 and brought great challenges to the scientific community and health professionals in terms of diagnosis and classification. Due to the difficulties in correctly identifying Zika cases, it is necessary to develop an automatic procedure to classify the probability of a CZS case from the clinical data. This work presents a machine learning algorithm capable of achieving this from structured and unstructured available data. The proposed algorithm reached 83% accuracy with textual information in medical records and image reports and 76% accuracy in classifying data without textual information. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has the potential to classify CZS cases in order to clarify the real effects of this epidemic, as well as to contribute to health surveillance in monitoring possible future epidemics.

The aim of this study was to validate a definition to identify cases of early neonatal near miss using data from health information systems (SIS in Portuguese). This was a concurrent validation study focusing on three definitions for identification of cases of early neonatal near miss among live births in a university hospital in 2012. Three different definitions were applied to this live birth cohort using the criteria birth weight, gestational age, 5-minute Apgar score, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, and congenital malformations, in different combinations, considering the proposals in two Brazilian articles (Silva et al.; Pillegi-Castro et al.) and a third (SIS definition) with available data from health information systems. Cases were defined as infants that had survived the risk conditions as of the 7th day of life. For concurrent validation, the study adopted early neonatal deaths as the reference. Of the 2,097 live births studied, 33 died in the early neonatal period, and the number of cases of early neonatal near miss varied according to the definition used: 153 (Silva definition), 194 (Pileggi-Castro definition), and 304 (SIS definition). Sensitivity and specificity were 97% and 92.6%, respectively, according to the Silva definition, 90.9% and 90.6% according to the Pileggi-Castro definition, and 93.9% and 85.3% according to the SIS definition. The results show that the SIS definition has sensitivity and specificity close to the other definitions and suggest that it is possible to monitor early neonatal near miss using only data that are available in official health information systems.

OBJETIVO: avaliar a evolução da assistência fonoaudiológica no SUS, nos anos 2000, 2005 e 2010. MÉTODOS: trata-se de um estudo descritivo, cujas unidades de análise foram as regiões do Brasil e o universo dos municípios agregados em porte populacional. Foram analisados os anos de 2000, 2005 e 2010, e utilizados dados secundários para coletar informações sobre a quantidade e o valor pago por procedimentos realizados por fonoaudiólogos, além do número de profissionais no SUS. RESULTADOS: houve grande crescimento dos procedimentos de fonoaudiologia no país, com maior crescimento na região Norte. Entre os municípios, o maior crescimento ocorreu entre aqueles de menor porte populacional. Em 2010, 89,8% dos municípios brasileiros não realizaram nenhum tipo de procedimento em assistência fonoaudiológica no SUS. Entre 2000 e 2010, o coeficiente procedimentos/mil habitantes passou de 19,8 para 60,7. A evolução dos gastos com fonoaudiologia no SUS demonstrou que o crescimento proporcional destes procedimentos foi maior que o aumento dos gastos totais ambulatoriais. E entre os grupos, os atendimentos para órteses e próteses apresentaram o maior crescimento. Nos anos analisados, o país apresentou um aumento no número de fonoaudiólogos, apesar de ser evidenciado um déficit de profissionais em 2010. CONCLUSÃO: a evolução da assistência fonoaudiológica no SUS apresentou um crescimento significante, entre 2000 e 2010. Entretanto, ainda persiste uma má distribuição da assistência e de fonoaudiólogos no país, evidenciando a necessidade contínua de discussõessobre a universalização do acesso e a busca pela equidade na assistência fonoaudiológica.

Objective:To describe the epidemiological characteristics of perinatal deaths by actions of the Public Health System. Methods: Descriptive study of temporal analysis, population composed of perinatal deaths of mothers residing in Recife, 2010Recife, -2014 Used List of causes of preventable deaths to classify avoidance and, EpiInfo version 7 for analysis of variables. Results: There were 1,756 perinatal deaths (1,019 fetal, 737 neonatal premature), reduction of early neonatal deaths (-15.8%), and fetal increase (12.1%). Main causes: fetus and newborn affected by maternal condition and asphyxia/hypoxia at birth. Conclusions: Most deaths were avoidable, concentrating on the adequate grouping of attention given to the woman during pregnancy. Failures in the care given to the woman at birth explain the percentage of asphyxia/ hypoxia. Reduction of preventable perinatal mortality is associated with increased access and quality of care to ensure promotion, prevention, treatment, and specific and timely care. Keywords: Perinatal mortality. Vital statistics. Obstetric nursing. Neonatal nursing. Public health. RESUMOObjetivo: Descrever características epidemiológicas dos óbitos perinatais por ações do Sistema Público de Saúde. Métodos: Estudo descritivo de análise temporal, população composta por óbitos perinatais de mães residentes no Recife, 2010-2014. Utilizado Lista de causas de mortes evitáveis para classificar a evitabilidade e EpiInfo versão 7 para análise das variáveis. Resultados: Ocorreram 1.756 óbitos perinatais (1.019 fetais e 737 neonatais precoce), observou-se redução dos óbitos neonatais precoces (-15,8%) e aumento dos fetais (12,1%). Apresentou como principais causas: feto e recém-nascido afetado por afecção materna e asfixia/hipóxia ao nascer. Conclusões: A maior parte dos óbitos foi evitável, concentrando-se no grupamento de assistência adequada dispensada à mulher na gestação. Lacunas na assistência dispensada à mulher no parto, explicam o percentual de asfixia/hipóxia. Redução da mortalidade perinatal evitável associa-se à ampliação do acesso e qualidade da assistência para garantir promoção, prevenção, tratamento, cuidados específicos e oportunos. Palavras-chave: Mortalidade perinatal. Estatísticas vitais. Enfermagem obstétrica. Enfermagem neonatal. Saúde pública. RESUMEN Objetivo:Describir las características epidemiológicas de las muertes perinatales por acciones del Sistema de Salud Pública. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo del análisis temporal, población compuesta por muertes perinatales de madres residentes en Recife, 2010-2014. Lista de causas de muertes evitables para clasificar la evitación y, EpiInfo versión 7 para el análisis de variables. Resultados: Hubo 1.756 muertes perinatales (1.019 fetales, 737 prematuros neonatos), reducción de muertes neonatales tempranas (-15,8%) y aumento fetal (12,1%). Principales causas: feto y recién-nacido afectados por afección materna y asfixia / hipoxia al nacer. Conclusiones: La mayoría de las muertes fueron evitables, concentrándose en la agrupació...

COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or vaccines, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 547 published governmental interventions, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to calibrate the model parameters using non-linear least squares methods. We analyze the changes on the TR and effective reproduction number as a function of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states as well as population movement. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions, and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Here we present a general compartment model with a time-varying transmission rate to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic, parameterized with the demographics of Bahia, a state in northeast Brazil. The dynamics of the model are influenced by the number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalization requirements and mortality due to the disease. A locally-informed model was determined using actual hospitalization records. Together with cases and casualty data, optimized estimates for model parameters were obtained within a metaheuristic framework based on Particle Swarm Optimization. Our strategy is supported by a statistical sensitivity analysis on the model parameters, adequate to properly account for the simulated scenarios. First, we evaluated the effect of previously enforced interventions on the transmission rate. Then, we studied its effects on the number of deaths as well as hospitalization requirements, considering the state as a whole. Special attention is given to the impact of asymptomatic individuals on the dynamic of COVID-19 transmission, as these were estimated to contribute to a 68% increase in the basic reproductive number. Finally, we delineated scenarios that can set guides to protect the health care system, particularly by keeping demand below total bed occupancy. Our results underscore the challenges related to maintaining a fully capable health infrastructure during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, specially in a low-resource setting such as the one focused in this work. The evidences produced by our modelling-based analysis show that decreasing the transmission rate is paramount to success in maintaining health resources availability, but that current local efforts, leading to a 38% decrease in the transmission rate, are still insufficient to prevent its collapse at peak demand. Carefully planned and timely applied interventions, that result in stark decreases in transmission rate, were found to be the most effective in preventing hospital bed shortages for the longest periods.

Objectives: to analyze social inequalities in spatial distribution of fetal and infant mortality by avoidable causes and identify the areas of greater risk of occurrence. Methods: avoidable deaths of fetal and infant residents of Recife/Brazil were studied. The rates of avoidable fetal and infant mortality were calculated for two five-year periods, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015. The scan statistics was used for spatial analysis and related to the social deprivation index. Results: out of the total 2,210 fetal deaths, 80% were preventable. Avoidable fetal mortality rates increased by 8.1% in the five-year periods. Of the 2,846 infant deaths, 74% were avoidable, and the infant mortality rate reduced by 0.13%. Conclusions: in the spatial analysis, were identified clusters with higher risk for deaths. The social deprivation index showed sensibility with areas of worse living conditions.