Human activities are the main current driver of global change. From hunter-gatherers through to Neolithic societies-and particularly in contemporary industrialised countries-humans have (voluntarily or involuntarily) provided other animals with food, often with a high spatio-temporal predictability. Nowadays, as much as 30-40% of all food produced in Earth is wasted. We argue here that predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS) provided historically by humans to animals has shaped many communities and ecosystems as we see them nowadays. PAFS improve individual fitness triggering population increases of opportunistic species, which may affect communities, food webs and ecosystems by altering processes such as competition, predator-prey interactions and nutrient transfer between biotopes and ecosystems. We also show that PAFS decrease temporal population variability, increase resilience of opportunistic species and reduce community diversity. Recent environmental policies, such as the regulation of dumps or the ban of fishing discards, constitute natural experiments that should improve our understanding of the role of food supply in a range of ecological and evolutionary processes at the ecosystem level. Comparison of subsidised and non-subsidised ecosystems can help predict changes in diversity and the related ecosystem services that have suffered the impact of other global change agents.

Human actions challenge nature in many ways. Ecological responses are ineluctably complex, demanding measures that describe them succinctly. Collectively, these measures encapsulate the overall 'stability' of the system. Many international bodies, including the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, broadly aspire to maintain or enhance ecological stability. Such bodies frequently use terms pertaining to stability that lack clear definition. Consequently, we cannot measure them and so they disconnect from a large body of theoretical and empirical understanding. We assess the scientific and policy literature and show that this disconnect is one consequence of an inconsistent and one-dimensional approach that ecologists have taken to both disturbances and stability. This has led to confused communication of the nature of stability and the level of our insight into it. Disturbances and stability are multidimensional. Our understanding of them is not. We have a remarkably poor understanding of the impacts on stability of the characteristics that define many, perhaps all, of the most important elements of global change. We provide recommendations for theoreticians, empiricists and policymakers on how to better integrate the multidimensional nature of ecological stability into their research, policies and actions.

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Boom-bust dynamics -the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline -have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

This meta-analysis shows that exercise stress MPI and pharmacologic stress MPI are comparable in their ability to risk-stratify patients. However, patients undergoing pharmacologic stress studies are at a higher risk for subsequent cardiac events. This is true even for those with normal perfusion imaging results.

Summary The far‐reaching impacts of livestock grazing in terrestrial grasslands are widely appreciated, but how livestock affect the structure and functions of sensitive coastal ecosystems has hitherto lacked synthesis. Grazing‐induced changes in salt marshes have the potential to alter the provision of valuable ecosystem services, such as coastal protection, blue carbon and biodiversity conservation. To investigate how livestock alter soil, vegetation and faunal properties in salt marshes, we conducted a global meta‐analysis of ungulate grazer impacts on commonly measured ecosystem properties (498 individual responses from 89 studies). We also tested stocking density, grazing duration, grazer identity, continent and vegetation type as potential modifiers of the grazing effect. The majority of studies were conducted in Europe (75) or the Americas (12), and investigated cattle (43) or sheep (22) grazing. All measures of above‐ground plant material (height, cover, above‐ground biomass, litter) were decreased by grazing, potentially impairing coastal protection through diminished wave attenuation. Soil carbon was reduced by grazing in American, but not European marshes, indicating a trade‐off with climate regulation that varies geographically. Additionally, grazing increased soil bulk density, salinity and daytime temperature, and reduced redox potential. Biodiversity responses depended on focal group, with positive effects of grazing on vegetation species richness, but negative effects on invertebrate richness. Grazing reduced the abundance of herbivorous invertebrates, which may affect fish and crustaceans that feed in the marsh. Overall vertebrate abundance was not affected, but there was provisional evidence for increases over a longer duration of grazing, potentially increasing birdwatching and wildfowling opportunities. Synthesis and applications. Our results reveal that the use of salt marshes for livestock production affects multiple ecosystem properties, creating trade‐offs and synergies with other ecosystem services. Grazing leads to reductions in blue carbon in the Americas but not in Europe. Grazing may compromise coastal protection and the provision of a nursery habitat for fish while creating provisioning and cultural benefits through increased wildfowl abundance. These findings can inform salt marsh grazing management, based on local context and desired ecosystem services.

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Please cite this article in press as: Singer, A., et al., Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions? Ecol. Model. (2015), http://dx. a b s t r a c tEnvironmental change is expected to shift the geographic range of species and communities. To estimate the consequences of these shifts for the functioning and stability of ecosystems, reliable predictions of alterations in species distributions are needed. Projections with correlative species distribution models, which correlate species' distributions to the abiotic environment, have become a standard approach. Criticism of this approach centres around the omission of relevant biotic feedbacks and triggered the search for alternatives. A new generation of mechanistic process-based species distribution models aims at implementing formulations of relevant biotic processes to cover species' life histories, physiology, dispersal abilities, evolution, and both intra-and interspecific interactions. Although this step towards more structural realism is considered important, it remains unclear whether the resulting projections are more reliable. Structural realism has the advantage that geographic range shifting emerges from the interplay of relevant abiotic and biotic processes. Having implemented the relevant response mechanisms, structural realistic models should better tackle the challenge of generating projections of species responses to (non-analogous) environmental change. However, reliable projections of future species ranges demand ecological information that is currently only available for few species. In this opinion paper, we discuss how the discrepancy between demand for structural realism on the one hand and the related knowledge gaps on the other hand affects the reliability of mechanistic species distribution models. We argue that omission of relevant processes potentially impairs projection accuracy (proximity of the mean outcome to the true value), particularly if species range shifts emerge from species and community dynamics. Yet, insufficient knowledge that limits model specification and parameterization, as well as process complexity, Abbreviations: C-SDM, correlative species distribution model; H-SDM, hybrid species distribution model; M-SDM, mechanistic species distribution model. Please cite this article in press as: Singer, A., et al., Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions? Ecol. Model. (2015), http://dx.ECOMOD-7739; No. of Pages 12 2 A. Singer et al. / Ecological Modelling xxx (2015) xxx-xxxincreases projection uncertainty (variance in the outcome of simulated model projections). The accuracy-uncertainty-relation reflects current limits to delivering reliable projections of range shifts. We propose a protocol to improve and communicate projection reliability. The protocol combines modelling and empirical research to efficiently fill critical knowledge gaps that ...