The process of trade and financial liberalization has fundamental consequences on the development of Brazilian industry. The relatively rapid reconfiguration of the institutional form of insertion into the international regime, in a context of intensification of foreign competition and lack of consistent industrial policy has been the engine of significant changes in the structure of industry. At the end of the 1990s, a new mode of regulation emerged, based on a new accumulation regime as result of the structural changes observed. Several empirical studies have highlighted the occurrence of deindustrialization and Dutch disease caused by the strong appreciation and volatility of the exchange rate, while others, on the contrary, see the opportunity for modernization of plants from the lower prices of imported capital goods. This paper provides new empirical evidence on the chances of industrialization and Dutch disease, which marks the current debate on the effects of real exchange rate appreciation to the Brazilian economy. For its relevancy regarding the future of the industry in this country, our work also examines the recent evolution of the Brazilian growth in the context of the spread of the North-American crisis. This regime has been characterized by a strong dominance of financial accumulation ; it constraints on investment and consumption decisions, which would explains the sharp drop of the industrial production in late 2008, when the global financial markets were largely affected. Consequently, the prospects of Brazil’s macroeconomic performance depend crucially on the reactions of the current mode of regulation, and the regime of accumulation, to the challenges posed by the current stage of evolution of the global economy. By using the concept of financialization it is possible to achieve a better understanding of the relationship between industrial structure changes and financial liberalization.
While research on financialization, considered the latest stage of the development of capitalism, initially focused on industrialized countries, it has now expanded to include emerging markets. This article provides new insights into the current Brazilian case, while arguing also that Brazil was already grappling with a premature, eliticized process of financialization in the 1980s, however embryonic. From the 2000s on, there came a new wave of financialization. This time, however, it was mass-based, using social policy as collateral. The article first establishes a timeline for and taxonomy of how financialization has been deployed in Brazil. It then examines how policies aimed at promoting social inclusion have been diverted to that end. Finally, it presents regression analyses demonstrating a negative correlation between financialization and the provision of public goods and services, which has become increasingly privatized. It also finds a positive relationship between financialization and income and cash transfers, the latter serving as collateral for the former.
Resumo A compreensão das relações Estado-economia é uma etapa necessária da análise das condições que bloqueiam o desenvolvimento brasileiro. O regime de crescimento econômico que emergiu das transformações estruturais da década de 1990, e subsiste até a atualidade, caracteriza-se por seu baixo dinamismo e instabilidades conjunturais recorrentes. Estudos recentes classificam-no entre os regimes dominados pelas finanças que, em função da situação externa e da política econômica vigente, ora assume um caráter finance-led growth regime, ora se expressa num padrão que se poderia denominar por finance-blocked growth. Entretanto, esses regimes só conseguem existir reproduzindo seus vínculos institucionais com o Estado, subordinando-o aos objetivos da revalorização financeira e rentista dos capitais. Em consequência, reduzem a autonomia da política econômica, restringem as condições políticas para a construção do Estado Social, além de esvaziarem a legitimidade das intervenções públicas para o desenvolvimento. Este artigo recorre aos conceitos de formas institucionais e de regime fisco-financeiro para análise dessa problemática.
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