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Möllmann, C., Müller-Karulis, B., Kornilovs, G., and St John, M. A. 2008. Effects of climate and overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure: regime shifts, trophic cascade, and feeback loops in a simple ecosystem. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 302–310. The Central Baltic Sea is the largest brackish waterbody in the world ocean, containing a highly productive but low-diversity ecosystem. Climate-induced changes in hydrography recently caused an ecosystem regime shift with changes at all trophic levels. The most pronounced changes in the ecosystem occurred at the zooplankton and fish trophic levels. In the zooplankton, dominance changed between the copepods Pseudocalanus acuspes and Acartia spp., a result of reduced salinities and increased temperatures. The change in hydrography also affected the reproductive success of the major fish species, resulting in a change in dominance from the piscivorous cod (Gadus morhua) to the planktivorous sprat (Sprattus sprattus). First, we investigate statistically the occurrence of regime shifts in time-series of key hydrographic variables and the biomass time-series of key species. Second, we demonstrate a three-level trophic cascade involving zooplankton. Finally, we model the ecosystem effects of the abiotic and biotic changes on copepod biomass and recruitment of fish stocks. Our results demonstrate the linkage between climate-induced zooplankton and fish regime changes, and how overfishing amplified the climate-induced changes at both trophic levels. Hence, our study demonstrates (i) the multiple pathways along which climatic and anthropogenic pressures can propagate through the foodweb; (ii) how both effects act synergistically to cause and stabilize regime changes; and (iii) the crucial role of zooplankton in mediating these ecosystem changes.

Large-scale climatic conditions prevailing over the central Baltic Sea resulted in declining salinity and oxygen concentrations in spawning areas of the eastern Baltic cod stock. These changes in hydrography reduced the reproductive success and, combined with high fishing pressure, caused a decline of the stock to the lowest level on record in the early 1990s. The present study aims at disentangling the interactions between reproductive effort and hydrographic forcing leading to variable recruitment. Based on identified key processes, stock dynamics is explained using updated environmental and life stage-specific abundance and production time-series. Declining salinities and oxygen concentrations caused high egg mortalities and indirectly increased egg predation by clupeid fish. Low recruitment, despite enhanced hydrographic conditions for egg survival in the mid-1990s, was due to food limitation for larvae, caused by the decline in the abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus sp. The case of the eastern Baltic cod stock exemplifies the multitude effects climatic variability may have on a fish stock and underscores the importance of knowledge of these processes for understanding stock dynamics.

There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts

In the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures acting on the Earth system, urgent actions are needed to guarantee efficient resource management and sustainable development for our growing human population. Our oceans-the largest underexplored component of the Earth system-are potentially home for a large number of new resources, which can directly impact upon food security and the wellbeing of humanity. However, the extraction of these resources has repercussions for biodiversity and the oceans ability to sequester green house gases and thereby climate. In the search for "new resources" to unlock the economic potential of the global oceans, recent observations have identified a large unexploited biomass of mesopelagic fish living in the deep ocean. This biomass has recently been estimated to be 10 billion metric tons, 10 times larger than previous estimates however the real biomass is still in question. If we are able to exploit this community at sustainable levels without impacting upon biodiversity and compromising the oceans' ability to sequester carbon, we can produce more food and potentially many new nutraceutical products. However, to meet the needs of present generations without compromising the needs of future generations, we need to guarantee a sustainable exploitation of these resources. To do so requires a holistic assessment of the community and an understanding of the mechanisms controlling this biomass, its role in the preservation of biodiversity and its influence on climate as well as management tools able to weigh the costs and benefits of exploitation of this community.

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Marine aggregates of biogenic origin, known as marine snow, are considered to play a major role in the ocean's particle flux and may represent a concentrated food source for zooplankton. However, observing the marine snow−zooplankton interaction in the field is difficult since conventional net sampling does not collect marine snow quantitatively and cannot resolve so-called thin layers in which this interaction occurs. Hence, field evidence for the importance of the marine snow−zooplankton link is scarce. Here we employed a Video Plankton Recorder (VPR) to quantify small-scale (metres) vertical distribution patterns of fragile marine snow aggregates and zooplankton in the Baltic Sea during late spring 2002. By using this non-invasive optical sampling technique we recorded a peak in copepod abundance (ca. 18 ind. l −1 ) associated with a pronounced thin layer (50 to 55 m) of marine snow (maximum abundance of 28 particles l −1 ), a feature rarely resolved. We provide indirect evidence of copepods feeding on marine snow by computing a spatial overlap index that indicated a strong positively correlated distribution pattern within the thin layer. Furthermore we recorded images of copepods attached to aggregates and demonstrating feeding behaviour, which also suggests a trophic interaction. Our observations highlight the potential significance of marine snow in marine ecosystems and its potential as a food resource for various trophic levels, from bacteria up to fish.

The Baltic Sea is a stratified, semienclosed sea typified by a low‐salinity surface layer and a deep saline layer of varying volume, salinity, temperature and oxygen concentration. The relationships between these oceanographic factors and the distribution of Baltic cod are presented, utilizing results from a survey carried out during the 1995 spawning period in the Bornholm Basin, at present the main spawning area of this stock. Cod distribution, abundance and population structure were estimated from hydroacoustic and trawl data and related to hydrographic parameters as well as to bottom depth. In the central basin, cod were aggregated in an intermediate layer about 15 m thick. This area of peak abundance was defined at its upper limit by the halocline and at the lower limit by oxygen content. The majority of individuals caught in the basin centre were in spawning or pre‐spawning condition with a high proportion of males to females. On the basin slopes, aggregations of cod were found near the bottom. These individuals were mainly immature and maturing stages with an increasing proportion of females to males with size. Salinity and oxygen conditions were found to be the major factors influencing the vertical and horizontal distribution of adult cod. Abundance of immature cod was also positively related to decreasing bottom depths. The effect of temperature was minor. The observed size‐ and sex‐dependent spawning aggregation patterns, in association with habitat volume and stock size, may influence cod catchability and thereby the assessment and exploitation patterns of this stock.