There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitudes of river floods in an unprecedented way 1 . Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe 2 . However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing data sets and the relatively low number of series across Europe, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long term perspective. We analyze how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. Here we show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the last 500 years, and that this period differs from other floodrich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine floodrich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (Western and Central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (Western and Southern Europe), and 1990. In most parts of Europe previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler than usual phases, however the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. In the past, the dominant flood seasons in flood-rich periods were similar to those during the intervening (interflood) periods, but flood seasonality is more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41% and 42% of Central European floods occurred in summer respectively, compared to 55% of floods in the recent period. The uniqueness of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based flood risk assessment tools and flood risk management strategies that can incorporate these changes.
This paper proposes a new classification scheme of atmospheric cyclone tracks over Europe. The cyclones are classified into nine types, based on the geographic regions, the cyclones traverse before entering central Europe. The method is applied to ERA‐40 data for 1961–2002, considering all significant cyclones above a relative vorticity threshold. About 120 and 80 cyclone tracks per year are identified at sea level pressure and 700 hPa geopotential height, respectively. About 25% are Atlantic type cyclones, 25% emerge directly over central Europe, and another 25% originate from the lee of the Alps. The other types are less frequent (Mediterranean 12%, Polar 7%, Continental 2%, and Vb 4%). The track types show distinct characteristics in terms of cyclone intensity and cyclone life stage when entering central Europe. Cyclones of type Vb are, on average, the most intense cyclones over central Europe and even more intense than Atlantic cyclones in summer, pointing to their potential for generating extreme precipitation. The identified cyclones account for 46%–76% of long‐term precipitation in a focus region in central Europe. Precipitation differs significantly between cyclones, with Atlantic and Vb cyclones producing the highest and Continental and Polar cyclones producing the lowest long‐term precipitation totals. The contributions of cyclone types to total precipitation show distinct spatial patterns within central Europe. The new cyclone type catalog will be useful for identifying the relevance of specific track types for precipitation extremes in central Europe and analyze their temporal behavior in the context of climate change.
Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid‐latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959–2015, focusing on large‐scale heavy precipitation.The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut‐off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths.The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track‐type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long‐term change. The findings help better understand spatio‐temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.
In this study the results of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) covering the Greater Alpine Region (GAR,(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19) were evaluated against observational data. The simulation was carried out as a hindcast run driven by ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1961-2000. The spatial resolution of the model data presented is approx. 10 km per grid point. For the evaluation purposes a variety of observational datasets were used: CRU TS 2.1, E-OBS, GPCC4 and HISTALP. Simple statistics such as mean biases, correlations, trends and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for different sub-regions were applied to verify the model performance. Furthermore, the altitude dependence of these statistical measures has been taken into account. Compared to the CRU and E-OBS datasets CCLM shows an annual mean cold bias of -0.6 and -0.7°C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation sums are generally overestimated by ?8 to ?23 % depending on the observational dataset with large variations in space and season. Bias and correlation show a dependency on altitude especially in the winter and summer seasons. Temperature trends in CCLM contradict the signals from observations, showing negative trends in summer and autumn which are in contrast to CRU and E-OBS.
This study presents a new gridded dataset providing absolute monthly mean temperatures across the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) of Europe at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin (6 × 9 km in the region) from 1780 to 2008. The starting point was a set of long-term homogenized station time series. To assure the quality of the analyses back in time, when the station density decreases, missing measurements were reconstructed by an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis that can deal with gappy data. It is shown that the reconstructed values comprise similar statistical features to the observations and that the method produces no breaks between the reconstructions and the observations. The compound anomaly dataset was then interpolated separately for two different altitude ranges to preserve anomaly gradients between high and low elevations. This allowed for the derivation of individual anomalies at each grid point in GAR. Finally, these smooth anomalies were blended with the highly resolved monthly mean absolute temperature fields, provided by a project of the European Climate Support Network. The added value of this new high resolution and long-term temperature dataset is shown and discussed using the examples of the height of the 0°C altitude and vertical lapse rates. For the first time, these and other features are now available for more than two centuries in a topographically complex region like GAR.
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