No abstract

Abstract. The summer drought of 2015 affected a large portion of continental Europe and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since summer 2003. The summer of 2015 was characterized by exceptionally high temperatures in many parts of central and eastern Europe, with daily maximum temperatures 2 °C higher than the seasonal mean (1971–2000) over most of western Europe, and more than 3 °C higher in the east. It was the hottest and climatologically driest summer over the 1950–2015 study period for an area stretching from the eastern Czech Republic to Ukraine. For Europe, as a whole, it is among the six hottest and driest summers since 1950. High evapotranspiration rates combined with a lack of precipitation affected soil moisture and vegetation and led to record low river flows in several major rivers, even beyond the drought-hit region. The 2015 drought developed rather rapidly over the Iberian Peninsula, France, southern Benelux and central Germany in May and reached peak intensity and spatial extent by August, affecting especially the eastern part of Europe. Over the summer period, there were four heat wave episodes, all associated with persistent blocking events. Upper-level atmospheric circulation over Europe was characterized by positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies flanked by a large negative anomaly to the north and west (i.e., over the central North Atlantic Ocean extending to northern Fennoscandia) and another center of positive geopotential height anomalies over Greenland and northern Canada. Simultaneously, the summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were characterized by large negative anomalies in the central North Atlantic Ocean and large positive anomalies in the Mediterranean basin. Composite analysis shows that the western Mediterranean SST is strongly related to the occurrence of dry and hot summers over the last 66 years (especially over the eastern part of Europe). The lagged relationship between the Mediterranean SST and summer drought conditions established in this study can provide valuable skill for the prediction of drought conditions over Europe on interannual to decadal timescales.

No abstract

In this paper, we perform a detailed regional analysis of the link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow for a comprehensive Austrian data set of 47 small to medium-size catchments in humid-temperate climate. Four drought indices considering different components of the catchment water balance are tested. We assess the quality of the link using rank correlation analysis, and the probability of detecting low-flow events by hit-scores. Overall, correlations range between 0.4 and 0.8 and differ significantly between regions. A stratified analysis shows that the link is much stronger (i) for summer low flows and droughts than for anomalies in general, and (ii) for more humid than more arid conditions. Under more humid conditions streamflow droughts of small to medium-size catchments are to a large extent generated by climate forcing and therefore well represented by a simple meteorological index. Under increasingly dry conditions, the climate signal gets less predictive, and storage properties of the underground become more important. A simple soil moisture accounting scheme (such as those of the Palmer index) can considerably improve the correlations. Overall, we conclude there is a significant link between meteorological drought and streamflow drought, except for catchments where groundwater storage and snow processes are important. The results are encouraging and provide a wealth of information which can profitably be used to set up statistical prediction models to estimate low flows from meteorological time series.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitudes of river floods in an unprecedented way 1 . Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe 2 . However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing data sets and the relatively low number of series across Europe, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long term perspective. We analyze how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. Here we show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the last 500 years, and that this period differs from other floodrich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine floodrich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (Western and Central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (Western and Southern Europe), and 1990. In most parts of Europe previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler than usual phases, however the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. In the past, the dominant flood seasons in flood-rich periods were similar to those during the intervening (interflood) periods, but flood seasonality is more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41% and 42% of Central European floods occurred in summer respectively, compared to 55% of floods in the recent period. The uniqueness of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based flood risk assessment tools and flood risk management strategies that can incorporate these changes.