ABSTRACT:The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a well-reviewed meteorological drought index recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and its more recent climatic water balance variant, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), both rely on selection of a univariate probability distribution to normalize the index, allowing for comparisons across climates. Choice of an improper probability distribution may impart bias to the index values, exaggerating or minimizing drought severity. This study compares a suite of candidate probability distributions for use in SPI and SPEI normalization using the 0.5 ∘ × 0.5 ∘ gridded Watch Forcing Dataset (WFD) at the continental scale, focusing on Europe. Several modifications to the SPI and SPEI methodology are proposed, as well as an updated procedure for evaluating SPI/SPEI goodness of fit based on the Shapiro-Wilk test. Candidate distributions for SPI organize into two groups based on their ability to model short-term accumulation (1-2 months) or long-term accumulation (>3 months). The two-parameter gamma distribution is recommended for general use when calculating SPI across all accumulation periods and regions within Europe, in agreement with previous studies. The generalized extreme value distribution is recommended when computing the SPEI, in disagreement with previous recommendations.

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Abstract. Streamflow observations from near-natural catchments are of paramount importance for detection and attribution studies, evaluation of large-scale model simulations, and assessment of water management, adaptation and policy options. This study investigates streamflow trends in a newly-assembled, consolidated dataset of near-natural streamflow records from 441 small catchments in 15 countries across Europe. The period 1962The period -2004 provided the best spatial coverage, but analyses were also carried out for longer time periods (with fewer stations), starting in 1932, 1942 and 1952. Trends were calculated by the slopes of the Kendall-Theil robust line for standardized annual and monthly streamflow, as well as for summer low flow magnitude and timing. A regionally coherent picture of annual streamflow trends emerged, with negative trends in southern and eastern regions, and generally positive trends elsewhere. Trends in monthly streamflow for 1962-2004 elucidated potential causes for these changes, as well as for changes in hydrological regimes across Europe. Positive trends were found in the winter months in most catchments. A marked shift towards negative trends was observed in April, gradually spreading across Europe to reach a maximum extentCorrespondence to: K. Stahl (kerstin.stahl@hydrology.uni-freiburg.de) in August. Low flows have decreased in most regions where the lowest mean monthly flow occurs in summer, but vary for catchments which have flow minima in winter and secondary low flows in summer. The study largely confirms findings from national and regional scale trend analyses, but clearly adds to these by confirming that these tendencies are part of coherent patterns of change, which cover a much larger region. The broad, continental-scale patterns of change are mostly congruent with the hydrological responses expected from future climatic changes, as projected by climate models. The patterns observed could hence provide a valuable benchmark for a number of different studies and model simulations.

Abstract. How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure), the inter-event time method (IT-method), and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA). The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP) distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed separately.

Changes in the magnitude and frequency of droughts will have extensive impacts on water management, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems. With the projected global temperature increase, scientists generally agree that the global hydrological cycle will intensify and suggest that extremes will become or have already become more common. In this study, a pan-European dataset of more than 600 daily streamflow records from the European Water Archive (EWA) was analysed to detect spatial and temporal changes in streamflow droughts. Four different time periods were analysed: 1962-1990, 1962-1995, 1930-1995 and 1911-1995. The focus was on hydrological droughts derived by applying the threshold level approach, which defines droughts as periods during which the streamflow is below a certain threshold. The Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of drought severity and the frequency of droughts in Partial Duration Series (PDS) were studied. Despite several reports on recent droughts in Europe, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and a resampling test for trend detection showed that it is not possible to conclude that drought conditions in general have become more severe or frequent. The period analysed and the selection of stations strongly influenced the regional pattern. For most stations, no significant changes were detected. However, distinct regional differences were found. Within the period 1962-1990 examples of increasing drought deficit volumes were found in Spain, the eastern part of Eastern Europe and in large parts of the UK, whereas decreasing drought deficit volumes occurred in large parts of Central Europe and in the western part of Eastern Europe. Trends in drought deficit volumes or durations could, to a large extent, be explained through changes in precipitation or artificial influences in the catchment. Changes in the number of drought events per year were determined by the combined effect of climate and catchment characteristics such as storage capacity. The importance of the time period chosen for trend analysis is illustrated using two very long time series.

Time-series for river gauging stations are core blue-skies and applied research resources for understanding impacts of climate and anthropogenic change on basin hydrology. River flow archives hold vital information for evidence-based assessment of past hydrological variability, and support hydrological modelling of future changes. River discharge is an integration of basin input, storage and transfer processes to the gauging point. It is important to set basin outlet data in regional to global and long-term contexts: to better understand nested scales of variability; to pinpoint locations and time periods most sensitive to climate and human impacts; to make predictions for ungauged basins; and to inform decision makers on water security issues, and where and when to take measures to mitigate water hazards and stress, including floods and droughts (