Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Lanen, H.A.J. van; Laaha, Gregor; Kingston, Daniel G.; Gauster, Tobias; Ionita, Mónica; Vidal, Jean‐Philippe; Vlnas, Radek; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Delus, Claire; Fendeková, Miriam; Mediero, Luis; Prudhomme, Christel; Rets, Ekaterina; Romanowicz, Renata J.; Gailliez, Sébastien; Wong, Wai Kwok; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Blauhut, Veit; Caillouet, Laurie; Chelcea, Silvia; Frolova, Natalia; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hanel, Martin; Haslinger, Klaus; Kireeva, Maria; Osuch, Marzena; Sauquet, Éric; Stagge, James H.; Loon, Anne F. Van

doi:10.1002/hyp.10838

Cited by 173 publications

(174 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…For the sake of a parsimonious model structure, these characteristics were omitted in this study but their future consideration could help to improve the simulations if information about the depth profile of permeability is available. A decrease in performance was also found for standardised indices that use probability distributions instead of a simulation model (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2012;Núñez et al, 2014;Van Lanen et al, 2016). To improve the approach's reliability for higher groundwater level percentiles, a model calibration that is more focussed on the high groundwater level percentiles may be a promising direction.…”

Section: Performance Of the Percentile Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Brenner

Coxon

Howden

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Chalk aquifers are an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to their properties, they are particularly vulnerable to groundwater-related hazards like floods and droughts. Understanding and predicting groundwater levels is therefore important for effective and safe water management. Chalk is known for its high porosity and, due to its dissolvability, exposed to karstification and strong subsurface heterogeneity. To cope with the karstic heterogeneity and limited data availability, specialised modelling approaches are required that balance model complexity and data availability. In this study, we present a novel approach to evaluate simulated groundwater level frequencies derived from a semi-distributed karst model that represents subsurface heterogeneity by distribution functions. Simulated groundwater storages are transferred into groundwater levels using evidence from different observations wells. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of the model when simulating groundwater level time series using a spilt sample test and parameter identifiability analysis. Secondly, we apply a split sample test to the simulated groundwater level percentiles to explore the performance in predicting groundwater level exceedances. We show that the model provides robust simulations of discharge and groundwater levels at three observation wells at a test site in a chalk-dominated catchment in south-western England. The second split sample test also indicates that the percentile approach is able to reliably predict groundwater level exceedances across all considered timescales up to their 75th percentile. However, when looking at the 90th percentile, it only provides acceptable predictions for long time periods and it fails when the 95th percentile of groundwater exceedance levels is considered. By modifying the historic forcings of our model according to expected future climate changes, we create simple climate scenarios and we show that the projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels and a reduction of exceedances of high groundwater level percentiles.

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Section: Performance Of the Percentile Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Brenner

Coxon

Howden

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Hydrological droughts are becoming more frequent disasters worldwide, which can also be attributed to both hydroclimatic and anthropogenic changes (AghaKouchak et al, 2015;van Loon et al, 2016;van Lanen et al, 2016). Regional studies show that larger changes in streamflow have been obPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

Firoz¹,

Nauditt²,

Fink

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method.Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

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“…The total loss of the 2003 severe drought event was estimated to be EUR 8.7 billion in central and southern Europe (EC, 2007). More recently, the 2015 drought event (Laaha et al, 2017;Van Lanen et al, 2016;Zink et al, 2016) in central Europe also caused significant socio-economic and environmental problems. Economic losses due to droughts almost doubled between the 1976-1990 and 1991-2006 periods to approximately EUR 6.2 billion per year.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

Marx

Kumar

Thober

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

165

136

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Abstract. There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km 2 . The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-theart hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from −12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, to −35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of periodaveraged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2) the uncertainty in the multi-model ensemble expressed by the signal-to-noise ratio. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the model results is generally higher than the one by the HMs. However, the uncertainty due to HMs cannot be neglected. In the Alpine, Northern, and Mediterranean regions, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Based on the analysis results, it is recommended (1) to use multiple HMs in climate impact studies and (2) to embrace uncertainty information on the multimodel ensemble as well as its single members in the adaptation process.

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Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Cited by 173 publications

References 35 publications

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

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Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Cited by 173 publications

References 35 publications

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Process-based modelling to evaluate simulated groundwater levels and frequencies in a Chalk catchment in south-western England

Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

Contact Info

Product

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About

Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C