Large‐scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

Abstract

Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid‐latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959–2015, focusing on large‐scale heavy precipitation.The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut‐off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths.The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track‐type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long‐term change. The findings help better understand spatio‐temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.

Spatial patterns and time distribution of central European extreme precipitation events between 1961 and 2013

“…In the period after 2013, there is no evidence of precipitation events with an extremity at the level of the five maximum central European EPEs, although three 24‐hr precipitation extremes were reported by Hofstätter et al . () during the years 2014 and 2015 in two smaller central European regions. The authors highlighted the period between 2006 and 2011 for the occurrence of heavy precipitation around Czechia.…”

“…The EPEs seems to repeat over time in accordance with recurring atmospheric circulation conditions (Hofstätter et al ., ; Jacobeit et al ., ). We expect a similarity in the spatial distribution of the precipitation and employ a clustering method to check the similarity and to find groups of analogous EPEs within the 53 maximum events.…”

“…The situation is changing towards the Atlantic, as the western part of Germany has experienced heavier winter rainfall situations during westerly circulation patterns (Beurton and Thieken, 2009;Hofstätter et al, 2017). Otherwise, cyclones moving along the Vb track (van Bebber, 1891) are the most relevant for summer extreme precipitation over large parts of central Europe (Messmer et al, 2015;Hofstätter et al, 2017) and especially the Elbe, Oder, and parts of the Danube basin (Kyselý, 2009;Nissen et al, 2014). Towards western central Europe, the frequency of Vb cyclones decreases, although strongly deviated Vb tracks were reported with EPEs arising, for example, in the Vosges Mountains (Minářová et al, 2018).…”

Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung auf Österreichs Wasserwirtschaft – ein aktualisierter Statusbericht

“…Hinweise auf Ände-rungen von hochwasserrelevanten Faktoren im Klimasystem in Mitteleuropa liegen vor (Hofstätter et al 2015(Hofstätter et al , 2017Blöschl et al 2017b). Die Häufigkeit von starkniederschlagsrelevanten Zugbahnen oder Wetterlagen im Zeitraum 1959-2015 hat jedoch nicht zugenommen, auch nicht für den in Mitteleuropa besonders relevanten Zugbahntyp Vb (Abb.…”

Simulations of the 2005, 1910 and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – Sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux

“…On a synoptic scale, the associated extratropical cyclone mainly followed the classical so called Vb cyclone track after Köppen (1881) and van Bebber (1891), see also Hofstätter et al (2016) . Cyclones on a Vb track are associated 10 with heavy to extreme precipitation over Central Europe, and particularly north of the Alps (Hofstätter et al, 2016(Hofstätter et al, , 2018Nissen et al, 2013). Vb cyclones build as lee cyclones south of the Alps (often, they are also called Genoa Lows at this stage; BAFU 2005) .…”