New simulation approaches to evaluating path-dependent options without matrix inversion issues nor Euler bias are evaluated. They employ three main contributions: (1) stochastic approximation replaces regression in the LSM algorithm; (2) explicit weak solutions to stochastic differential equations are developed and applied to Heston model simulation; and (3) importance sampling expands these explicit solutions. The approach complements Heston (1993) and Broadie & Kaya (2006) by handling the case of path-dependence in the option's execution strategy. Numeric comparison against standard Monte Carlo methods demonstrate up to two orders of magnitude speed improvement. The general ideas will extend beyond the important Heston setting.2010 Mathematics Subject Classification. Primary 91G60, 65C05; Secondary 91G20, 60H10.
This paper develops the Bayesian model selection based on Bayes factor for a rich class of partially-observed micro-movement models of asset price. We focus on one recursive algorithm to calculate the Bayes factors, first deriving the system of SDEs for them and then applying the Markov chain approximation method to yield a recursive algorithm. We prove the consistency (or robustness) of the recursive algorithm. To illustrate the construction of such a recursive algorithm, we consider a model selection problem for two micro-movement models with and without stochastic volatility, and provide simulation and real-data examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Bayes factor in the model selection for this class of models.
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