No abstract

The analysis of infectious disease data presents challenges arising from the dependence in the data and the fact that only part of the transmission process is observable. These dif®culties are usually overcome by making simplifying assumptions. The paper explores the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the analysis of infectious disease data, with the hope that they will permit analyses to be made under more realistic assumptions. Two important kinds of data sets are considered, containing temporal and non-temporal information, from outbreaks of measles and in¯uenza. Stochastic epidemic models are used to describe the processes that generate the data. MCMC methods are then employed to perform inference in a Bayesian context for the model parameters. The MCMC methods used include standard algorithms, such as the Metropolis±Hastings algorithm and the Gibbs sampler, as well as a new method that involves likelihood approximation. It is found that standard algorithms perform well in some situations but can exhibit serious convergence dif®culties in others. The inferences that we obtain are in broad agreement with estimates obtained by other methods where they are available. However, we can also provide inferences for parameters which have not been reported in previous analyses.

No abstract

Previous research suggests that, in open-plan offices, noise complaints may be related to the high intelligibility of speech. Distraction distance, which is based on the Speech Transmission Index, can be used to objectively describe the acoustic quality of open-plan offices. However, the relation between distraction distance and perceived noise disturbance has not been established in field studies. The aim of this study was to synthesize evidence from separate studies covering 21 workplaces (N = 883 respondents) and a wide range of room acoustic conditions. The data included both questionnaire surveys and room acoustic measurements [ISO 3382-3 (2012) (International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland]. Distraction distance, the spatial decay rate of speech, speech level at 4 m from the speaker, and the average background noise level were examined as possible predictors of perceived noise disturbance. The data were analyzed with individual participant data meta-analysis. The results show that distracting background speech largely explains the overall perception of noise. An increase in distraction distance predicts an increase in disturbance by noise, whereas the other quantities may not alone be associated with noise disturbance. The results support the role of room acoustic design, i.e., the simultaneous use of absorption, blocking, and masking in the attainment of good working conditions in open-plan offices.

Impaired psychomotor performance speed and executive function may represent endophenotypes of BPD, reflecting possible underlying vulnerability to the disorder. Verbal memory impairments appear to be more related to the fully developed disorder.

Oral rizatriptan is effective and well-tolerated for migraine attacks in children over age 6 years.

No abstract

The prevention of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), as a complication of rubella infection during pregnancy, is the main aim of rubella vaccination programmes. However, as vaccination of infants leads to an increase in the average age at which those who were not immunized become infected, certain rubella vaccination programmes can lead to an increase in the incidence of CRS. In this paper we use a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus to investigate the likely impact of different vaccination policies in Europe. The model was able to capture pre- and post-vaccination patterns of infection and prevalence of serological markers under a wide variety of scenarios, suggesting that the model structure and parameter estimates were appropriate. Analytical and numerical results suggest that endemic circulation of rubella is unlikely in Finland, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and perhaps Denmark, provided vaccine coverage is uniform across geographical and social groups. In Italy and Germany vaccine coverage in infancy has not been sufficient to interrupt rubella transmission, and continued epidemics of CRS seem probable. It seems unlikely that the immunization programmes in these countries are doing more harm than good, but this may be partly as a result of selective immunization of schoolgirls. Indeed, in both these countries, selective vaccination of schoolgirls with inadequate vaccination histories is likely to be an important mechanism by which CRS incidence is suppressed (unlike the other countries, which have had sufficiently high infant coverage rates to withdraw this option). Reducing inequalities in the uptake of rubella vaccine may bring greater health benefits than increasing the mean level of coverage.