2000
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268800004660
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Modelling rubella in Europe

Abstract: The prevention of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), as a complication of rubella infection during pregnancy, is the main aim of rubella vaccination programmes. However, as vaccination of infants leads to an increase in the average age at which those who were not immunized become infected, certain rubella vaccination programmes can lead to an increase in the incidence of CRS. In this paper we use a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus to investigate the likely impact of different va… Show more

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Cited by 61 publications
(42 citation statements)
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“…3a), and shows slight regional differences. With life-expectancy of around L =66 in Costa Rica in 1969, using the relationship R 0 ~1+ L/A (Anderson and May, 1991), this suggests a rather low R 0 (between 3 and 5), comparable with R 0 estimates of between 2 and 8 reported for rubella Europe (Edmunds et al, 2000a; Edmunds et al, 2000b). To estimate the force of infection over age, we used the 'catalytic' model (Griffiths, 1974), so called because of it structural similarity to equations commonly used to study of chemical reactions (Grenfell and Anderson, 1985).…”
Section: Parameterizing the Modelmentioning
confidence: 76%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…3a), and shows slight regional differences. With life-expectancy of around L =66 in Costa Rica in 1969, using the relationship R 0 ~1+ L/A (Anderson and May, 1991), this suggests a rather low R 0 (between 3 and 5), comparable with R 0 estimates of between 2 and 8 reported for rubella Europe (Edmunds et al, 2000a; Edmunds et al, 2000b). To estimate the force of infection over age, we used the 'catalytic' model (Griffiths, 1974), so called because of it structural similarity to equations commonly used to study of chemical reactions (Grenfell and Anderson, 1985).…”
Section: Parameterizing the Modelmentioning
confidence: 76%
“…Since routine vaccination generally decreases the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected), it will increase the average age of infection unless coverage is high enough to achieve elimination. Mass vaccination may therefore potentially have the negative side effect of increasing CRS incidence (Anderson and May, 1983; Anderson and May, 1985; Anderson and May, 1991; Edmunds et al, 2000b; Vynnycky et al, 2003). Dynamically speaking, mass vaccination is analogous to reducing the birth rate, if vaccine-induced immunity conveys life-long protection (Earn et al, 2000).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The NPSS 2008-2010 confirmed the high overall seroprevalence of rubella (88.5%, CI 86.6-90.2) in children and adolescents aged 1-17 years. Estimates based on European sero-epidemiological data suggest that a seropositivity of 70-87% is sufficient to eliminate rubella infection [31].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Rather than being essentially homologous, as implicit in the EURO conjecture, the possibility that patterns of infection by measles throughout Europe could be and have been largely different (as by the way suggested for rubella by Edmunds et al . [26]) is a stimulating one. Our results provide many indications that infection patterns in Italy could indeed deviate from the "EURO" standard.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%