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Recent studies on general equilibrium models with transaction costs show that the dynamics of the real exchange rate are necessarily nonlinear. Our contribution to the literature on nonlinear price adjustment mechanisms is threefold. First, we model the real exchange rate by a Multi-Regime Logistic Smooth Transition Auto Regression (mr-lstar), allowing for both estar-type and setar-type dynamics. This choice is motivated by the fact that even the theoretical models, which predict a smooth behavior for the real exchange rate, do not rule out the possibility of a discontinuous adjustment as a limit case. Second, we propose two classes of unit-root tests against this mr-lstar alternative, based respectively on the likelihood and on an auxiliary model. Their asymptotic distributions are derived analytically. Third, when applied to 28 bilateral real exchange rates, our tests reject the null hypothesis of a unit root for eleven series bringing evidence in favor of the purchasing power parity.*
International audienceThis paper aims at investigating the heterogeneity of informal employment on the Turkish labour market. To circumvent the constraints imposed by the traditional parametric methods, finite mixture models are estimated in order to identify the optimal number of segments within the informal employment and their respective returns to individual characteristics. In particular, it sheds light on the potential voluntary nature of informal employment by comparing the estimated probabilities of segment membership with the theoretical probabilities that would result from a competitive labour market under the hypothesis of income maximization by workers. Results show that the classical self-employed versus informal wage-workers divide is not the best split of informal employment. Furthermore, the two estimated informal employment segments are both less desirable than formal employment. Thus, the hypothesis of labour-market segmentation, even after taking informal-sector heterogeneity into account, seems to hold, supporting the traditional dualistic view of informal employment in the Turkish context
CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d'une subvention d'infrastructure du Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams.
From quarterly postwar US and French data, this paper provides evidence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment but not in final sales data. Actually, from a bounce-back augmented threshold model, it appears that i) the null hypothesis of no bounce-back effect is strongly rejected by the inventory investment data and ii) the one-step ahead forecasting performances of the models accounting for this bounce-back effect are well improved compared to linear or standard threshold autoregressions. This supports the conventional wisdom that inventory investment exacerbates aggregate fluctuations, in line with the recent theoretical models by, e.g., Wang and Wen (Wang, P., and Y. Wen. 2009. "Inventory Accelerator in General Equilibrium." Working Paper 010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and Wang, Wen and Xu (Wang, P., Y. Wen, and Z. Xu. 2011. "When do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? An Analytical Approach to (s,s) Policies." Working Paper 014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) which clearly predict a destabilizing role of inventory investment over the business cycle. By contrast, our empirical findings cast doubt on models based on the stockouts avoidance motive for holding inventories
This study examines the impact of trade openness on job quality, measured by the share of informal and irregular employment in total employment. By combining a microeconomic dataset (the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey) with macroeconomic variables (tariffs), we assess the effect of trade reforms on informal/irregular workers in Egypt. Our main findings show that there is a positive association between tariffs and both informal and irregular employments in Egypt. This effect is likely because the least productive informal firms will be forced to exit the industry and only the most productive (formal) firms will export to the international markets. This will increase the demand for formal (and eventually regular) workers that are usually more skilled and, in turn, lead to a likely decline in informal (and irregular) employment. While this effect on informality is robust, the one on irregularity is not.
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