This pape r provides answers to three questions concerning the behavior of exports. (I) We ask if foreign exchange revenue will increase when higher incentives are granted to exports. (2) Will domestic unemployment caUSB an increase in the supply of exports ? (3) Should wage policy be used as an instrurnent to increase the
RESUMO Este artigo analisa a evolução dos principais fundamentos econômicos brasileiros ao longo do período de rígida administração da taxa de câmbio no Plano Real. O trabalho tem início com uma resenha acerca dos fatores que causaram as instabilidades cambiais vividas pelo país nos anos 1990. As análises mostraram que os principais fatores eram os desequilíbRearios nos fundamentos econômicos, em especial nos fundamentos relativos às contas externas e fi scais. Dada tal condição, passou-se a analisar esses fundamentos. Os dados e construções realizadas mostraram que houve uma forte deterioração das variáveis relativas às contas externas e ao desempenho fi scal, confi rmando os resultados apresentados pela literatura. Diante desses fatos, chegou-se à conclusão de que houve a formação de um círculo vicioso entre forte administração cambial, deterioração dos fundamentos e instabilidades cambiais.
This article analyses whether exchange rate pressures and speculative attacks against the Brazilian currency during the period of exchange rate anchorage resulted from imbalances in economic fundamentals. An alternative methodological approach is used to test whether the deterioration of economic fundamentals can explain the pressure put on the exchange rate during a period of crisis. The most innovative aspect of this approach lies in the development of a construct of fundamentals for the Brazilian economy that incorporates variables related to the external, fiscal and monetary sectors. The results show that macroeconomic imbalances contributed to the currency collapse that occurred in January of 1999.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.