Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death globally. An improved risk stratification strategy can increase efficiency of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening. Here we assessed whether individual's genetic background has clinical utility for risk stratification in the context of LDCT screening. Based on 13,119 lung cancer patients and 10,008 controls with European ancestry in the International Lung Cancer Consortium, we constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) via 10-fold cross-validation with regularized penalized regression. The performance of risk model integrating PRS, including calibration and ability to discriminate, was assessed using UK biobank data (N=335,931). Absolute risk was estimated based on age-specific lung cancer incidence and all-cause mortality as competing risk. To evaluate its potential clinical utility, the PRS distribution was simulated in the National Lung Screening Trial (N=50,772 participants). The lung cancer odds ratio (ORs) for individuals at the top decile of the PRS distribution versus those at bottom 10% was 2.39 (95%CI=1.92-3.00, P=1.80×10 −14 ) in the validation set (trend p-value of 5.26 × 10 −20 ). The OR per standard deviation of PRS increase was 1.26 (95%CI=1.20-1.32, P=9.69×10 −23 ) for overall lung cancer risk in the validation set. When considering absolute risks, individuals at different PRS deciles showed differential trajectories of 5-year and cumulative absolute risk. The age reaching the LDCT screening recommendation threshold can vary by 4 to 8 years, depending on the individual's genetic background, smoking status and family history. Collectively, these results suggest that individual's genetic background may inform the optimal lung cancer LDCT screening strategy.

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Revue canadienne des soins respiratoires et critiques et de la médecine du sommeil

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BackgroundImpaired lung health represents a significant burden on global health, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer. Given its global health impact, it is important to understand the determinants of impaired lung function and its relation to lung cancer risk independent of smoking. However, to date, no study has evaluated determinants of impaired lung function in a cohort exclusively of never-smokers, who also represent a growing proportion of all lung cancers.MethodsA total of 222,274 never-smokers with reproducible spirograms were identified in the UK Biobank population-based cohort and included in the analysis. Baseline volumetric measures of lung function, including forced expiratory volume in 1-s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), were used to define lung function impairment. Determinants of impaired lung function were evaluated using Poisson regression with robust variance estimation. The added value of lung function in lung cancer prediction was evaluated using Fine and Gray regression accounting for the competing risk of all-cause mortality.FindingsLung function impairment was associated with low birthweight, ambient air pollution (PM2·5 μg/mm3), and overweight, after adjustment for other important risk factors. We observed modest improvement in discrimination by adding lung function to our lung cancer prediction model for never-smokers. The highest optimism-corrected AUC at 3 (0·700, 95% CI: 0·654–0·734) and 5 years (0·694, 95% CI: 0·658–0·736) included FEV1 (% of GLI predicted FEV1), while the highest AUC at 7 years was based on the inclusion of FEV1/FVC (0·722, 95% CI: 0·687–0·762).InterpretationWe identified several modifiable risk factors associated with increased risk of lung function impairment among lifetime never-smokers in UKB. We achieved moderate discrimination for lung cancer risk-prediction for never-smokers, and found modest improvement with the inclusion of lung function.FundThis study was supported by a Canada Research Chair to RJH.

BackgroundThere is suggestive evidence that increased intake of dietary fibre and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are generally associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk. However, the effects on precursors of colorectal cancer, such as adenomatous polyps, are mixed. We present the associations between dietary fibre intake and NSAID use on the presence and type of colorectal polyps in a screening population.MethodsA cross-sectional study of 2548 individuals undergoing colonoscopy at the Forzani & MacPhail Colon Cancer Screening Centre (Calgary, Canada) was conducted. Dietary fibre intake and NSAID use were assessed using the Diet History Questionnaire I or II and the Health and Lifestyle Questionnaire. Colorectal outcomes were documented as a polyp or high-risk adenomatous polyp (HRAP; villous histology, high-grade dysplasia, ≥10 mm or ≥3 adenomas). Crude and ORs and 95% CIs were estimated using unconditional logistic regression.ResultsThere were 1450 negative colonoscopies and 1098 patients with polyps, of which 189 patients had HRAPs. Total dietary fibre intake was associated with a decreased presence of HRAPs (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.86) when comparing the highest to lowest quartiles and was observed with both soluble (OR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88) and insoluble (OR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.86) fibres. Ever use of NSAIDs was also inversely associated with HRAPs (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.89), observed with monthly (OR=0.60, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95) and daily (OR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.32 to 0.86) use.ConclusionsDietary fibre intake and NSAID use were associated with a decreased risk of having a HRAP at screening.

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Impaired lung function is often caused by cigarette smoking, making it challenging to disentangle its role in lung cancer susceptibility. Investigation of the shared genetic basis of these phenotypes in the UK Biobank and International Lung Cancer Consortium (29,266 cases, 56,450 controls) shows that lung cancer is genetically correlated with reduced forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1 : r g = 0.098, p = 2.3 × 10 −8) and the ratio of FEV 1 to forced vital capacity (FEV 1 /FVC: r g = 0.137, p = 2.0 × 10 −12). Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrate that reduced FEV 1 increases squamous cell carcinoma risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.51, 95% confidence intervals: 1.21-1.88), while reduced FEV 1 /FVC increases the risk of adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.17, 1.01-1.35) and lung cancer in never smokers (OR = 1.56, 1.05-2.30). These findings support a causal role of pulmonary impairment in lung cancer etiology. Integrative analyses reveal that pulmonary function instruments, including 73 novel variants, influence lung tissue gene expression and implicate immune-related pathways in mediating the observed effects on lung carcinogenesis.